NFL MVP odds today
Kalshi and Polymarket both rate Joe Burrow as the likeliest 2026 NFL MVP, at 32.5% on Kalshi and 31% on Polymarket.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a player's market turned into a percentage. Kalshi titles its market "MVP Winner?" and Polymarket titles its market "Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner", and both settle on the player named Most Valuable Player of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. We read Kalshi and Polymarket's public market data on 14 Nov 2026, 9:12 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 14 Nov 2026, 9:12 PM ET
- Kalshi
- 32.5%
- Joe Burrow leads
- Polymarket
- 31%
- Joe Burrow leads
- Settles
- 14 Mar
- 2027, per Kalshi's listing
Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket rate the 10 players most likely to win the 2026 NFL MVP award, side by side.
Chance of winning
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- 1Joe BurrowKalshi32.5%Polymarket31%
- 2Josh AllenKalshi20.5%Polymarket20.5%
- 3Brock PurdyKalshi15.5%Polymarket14.8%
- 4Jordan LoveKalshi13.5%Polymarket10.2%
- 5Trevor LawrenceKalshi8.5%Polymarket10.2%
- 6Caleb WilliamsKalshi3.5%Polymarket3.3%
- 7Patrick MahomesKalshi1.5%Polymarket2.5%
- 8Jared GoffKalshi1.5%Polymarket1.6%
- 9CJ StroudKalshi1.5%Polymarketn/a
- 10Kirk CousinsKalshi1.5%Polymarketn/a
Kalshi lists 48 players and Polymarket lists 27 for the 2026 NFL MVP, and only one of them can settle Yes.
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 32.5% | 31% |
| Josh Allen | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Brock Purdy | 15.5% | 14.8% |
| Jordan Love | 13.5% | 10.2% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8.5% | 10.2% |
| Caleb Williams | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| Jared Goff | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| CJ Stroud | 1.5% | n/a |
| Kirk Cousins | 1.5% | n/a |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| Justin Herbert | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| A.J. Brown | 0.5% | n/a |
| Aaron Rodgers | 0.5% | n/a |
| Ashton Jeanty | 0.5% | n/a |
| Bryce Young | 0.5% | n/a |
| Cam Ward | 0.5% | n/a |
| CeeDee Lamb | 0.5% | n/a |
| Daniel Jones | 0.5% | n/a |
| Deshaun Watson | 0.5% | n/a |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 0.5% | n/a |
| Jayden Daniels | 0.5% | n/a |
| JJ McCarthy | 0.5% | n/a |
| Jonathan Taylor | 0.5% | n/a |
| Josh Jacobs | 0.5% | n/a |
| Kenneth Walker | 0.5% | n/a |
| Kyler Murray | 0.5% | n/a |
| Micah Parsons | 0.5% | n/a |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 0.5% | n/a |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 0.5% | n/a |
| Tyler Shough | 0.5% | n/a |
| Bo Nix | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Dak Prescott | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Stafford | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Baker Mayfield | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Drake Maye | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lamar Jackson | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jalen Hurts | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Bijan Robinson | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Derrick Henry | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Jaxson Dart | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Justin Jefferson | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Myles Garrett | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Puka Nacua | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Sam Darnold | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Saquon Barkley | 0.5% | <0.1% |
Each venue settles a player's market Yes only if that player wins, and the dates below come from the venues' own listings.
- Kalshi. A player's market settles Yes if that player wins the AP regular-season MVP award for the 2026-27 pro football season, and the market can close as soon as the NFL MVP winner is announced. Kalshi expects to settle by 14 March 2027.
- Polymarket. A player's market settles Yes if that player wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 season, and settles No if another player wins. The market is scheduled to close on 28 February 2027, and if no winner is announced by then Polymarket resolves it to Other, not to a listed player.
- The chances. A Yes share pays $1 if the player wins, so a price of 14 cents is a 14% chance. For Kalshi we use the midpoint of the best bid and ask when they are within 10 cents of each other, and the last trade when they are not. For Polymarket we use the price it publishes for Yes.
- The volume. Kalshi counts contracts and Polymarket counts US dollars, so the two totals cannot be compared directly.
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
This page is about pro football, but BitPredict asks a simpler question than these markets, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Kalshi and Polymarket odds on the 2026 NFL MVP.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 NFL MVP award on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi rates Joe Burrow first, at 32.5%, and Polymarket rates Joe Burrow first, at 31%, as read on 14 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
What do the 2026 NFL MVP award odds on this page mean?
Each percentage is the price of a Yes share in one player's market. A share pays $1 if the player wins, so a price of 14 cents means the market gives that player about a 14% chance. It is what traders are paying, not a promise: a player at 14% still loses about 86 times in 100 if the prices are set well.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket differ for this market?
Both ask which player wins the 2026 NFL MVP award, and both pay $1 for a winning share. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, counts trading in contracts (44.4M contracts so far), while Polymarket counts US dollars ($1.5M so far), so the totals cannot be compared directly. Kalshi expects to settle by 14 March 2027. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 28 February 2027 and resolves to Other if no winner is announced by then.
Which player do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on most?
Jordan Love: Kalshi gives 13.5% and Polymarket gives 10.2%, a gap of 3.4 points.
Why do the chances not add up to exactly 100%?
Each player's price is set by its own trading, so the prices need not add up to exactly 100%. On this read Kalshi's chances add up to 119% and Polymarket's to 100.1%. Kalshi's total runs above 100% partly because a player quoted between 0 and 1 cent shows as 0.5%. Polymarket lists 27 players to Kalshi's 48, and its total counts only the players it lists.
When does the market on the 2026 NFL MVP settle?
Kalshi's market can settle as soon as the NFL MVP winner is announced, and Kalshi expects to settle by 14 March 2027. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 28 February 2027, and it settles as soon as the winner is announced.
Can I make a free prediction on BitPredict?
Yes, but BitPredict covers crypto, not pro football. It is free to play: you call Bitcoin or another coin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.