2028 Democratic nominee odds today
Kalshi and Polymarket both rate Jon Ossoff as the likeliest 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, at 25.5% on Kalshi and 26.1% on Polymarket.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a candidate's market turned into a percentage. Kalshi titles its market "2028 Democratic presidential nominee" and Polymarket titles its market "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028", and both settle on the candidate who wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. We read Kalshi and Polymarket's public market data on 14 Nov 2026, 7:06 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 14 Nov 2026, 7:06 PM ET
- Kalshi
- 25.5%
- Jon Ossoff leads
- Polymarket
- 26.1%
- Jon Ossoff leads
- Settles
- 7 Nov
- 2028, per Kalshi's listing
Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket rate the 10 candidates most likely to win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, side by side.
Chance of winning
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- 1Jon OssoffKalshi25.5%Polymarket26.1%
- 2Alexandria Ocasio-CortezKalshi14.5%Polymarket14.6%
- 3Gavin NewsomKalshi10.5%Polymarket10%
- 4Pete ButtigiegKalshi5.3%Polymarket5.3%
- 5Josh ShapiroKalshi4.8%Polymarket5.6%
- 6Kamala HarrisKalshi5.1%Polymarket5.1%
- 7Andy BeshearKalshi4%Polymarket3.9%
- 8Raphael WarnockKalshi3.3%Polymarket3.3%
- 9Mark KellyKalshi3.5%Polymarket2.1%
- 10Wes MooreKalshi2.3%Polymarket2.3%
Kalshi lists 60 candidates and Polymarket lists 52 for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, and only one of them can settle Yes.
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 25.5% | 26.1% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14.5% | 14.6% |
| Gavin Newsom | 10.5% | 10% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.8% | 5.6% |
| Kamala Harris | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Andy Beshear | 4% | 3.9% |
| Raphael Warnock | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Mark Kelly | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Wes Moore | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Ro Khanna | 2.1% | 2.3% |
| J.B. Pritzker | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| James Talarico | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| Michelle Obama | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Cory Booker | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Chelsea Clinton | n/a | 0.6% |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Mark Cuban | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Dwayne Johnson | <0.1% | 0.8% |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Jon Stewart | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Mikie Sherrill | 0.3% | n/a |
| Roy Cooper | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 0.3% | n/a |
| Sherrod Brown | 0.3% | n/a |
| Barack Obama | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Chris Murphy | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Hunter Biden | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Shawn Fain | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Adam Hamilton | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 0.1% | n/a |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Hillary Clinton | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.1% | n/a |
| Josh Stein | n/a | 0.1% |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Yang | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Abigail Spanberger | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Beto O'Rourke | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Gina Raimondo | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jared Polis | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jasmine Crockett | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mitch Landrieu | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| MrBeast | n/a | 0.1% |
| Phil Murphy | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aaron Ford | <0.1% | n/a |
| Annie Andrews | <0.1% | n/a |
| Chris Pappas | <0.1% | n/a |
| David Jolly | <0.1% | n/a |
| Dean Phillips | <0.1% | n/a |
| Graham Platner | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| John Fetterman | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| LeBron James | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Liz Cheney | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Mary Peltola | <0.1% | n/a |
| Scott Colom | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tim Walz | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Each venue settles a candidate's market Yes only if that candidate wins, and the dates below come from the venues' own listings.
- Kalshi. A candidate's market settles Yes if that candidate wins and accepts the Democratic Party's 2028 nomination for President, and the market can close as soon as a candidate accepts the Democratic nomination. Kalshi lists 7 November 2028 as the latest day it settles.
- Polymarket. A candidate's market settles Yes if that candidate wins and accepts the Democratic Party's 2028 nomination for President, as a consensus of official Democratic Party sources reports it, and settles No if another candidate wins. The market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028.
- The chances. A Yes share pays $1 if the candidate wins, so a price of 14 cents is a 14% chance. For Kalshi we use the midpoint of the best bid and ask when they are within 10 cents of each other, and the last trade when they are not. For Polymarket we use the price it publishes for Yes.
- The volume. Kalshi counts contracts and Polymarket counts US dollars, so the two totals cannot be compared directly.
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These are the questions people ask about Kalshi and Polymarket odds on the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.
Who is the favorite to win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi rates Jon Ossoff first, at 25.5%, and Polymarket rates Jon Ossoff first, at 26.1%, as read on 14 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
What do the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination odds on this page mean?
Each percentage is the price of a Yes share in one candidate's market. A share pays $1 if the candidate wins, so a price of 14 cents means the market gives that candidate about a 14% chance. It is what traders are paying, not a promise: a candidate at 14% still loses about 86 times in 100 if the prices are set well.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket differ for this market?
Both ask which candidate wins the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, and both pay $1 for a winning share. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, counts trading in contracts (293M contracts so far), while Polymarket counts US dollars ($1.3B so far), so the totals cannot be compared directly. Kalshi lists 7 November 2028 as the latest day it settles. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028.
Which candidate do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on most?
Mark Kelly: Kalshi gives 3.5% and Polymarket gives 2.1%, a gap of 1.5 points.
Why do the chances not add up to exactly 100%?
Each candidate's price is set by its own trading, so the prices need not add up to exactly 100%. On this read Kalshi's chances add up to 98.8% and Polymarket's to 95%. Polymarket lists 52 candidates to Kalshi's 60, and its total counts only the candidates it lists.
When does the market on the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee settle?
Kalshi's market can settle as soon as a candidate accepts the Democratic nomination, and 7 November 2028 is the latest day it settles. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028, and it settles once official Democratic Party sources agree on the nominee.
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