Champions League odds today
Kalshi and Polymarket both rate Barcelona as the likeliest 2027 Champions League winner, at 21.5% on Kalshi and 23.5% on Polymarket.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a club's market turned into a percentage. Kalshi titles its market "Champions League Winner" and Polymarket titles its market "UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion", and both settle on the club that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League. We read Kalshi and Polymarket's public market data on 14 Nov 2026, 9:13 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 14 Nov 2026, 9:13 PM ET
- Kalshi
- 21.5%
- Barcelona leads
- Polymarket
- 23.5%
- Barcelona leads
- Settles
- 5 Jun
- 2027, per Kalshi's listing
Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket rate the 10 clubs most likely to win the 2026-27 Champions League, side by side.
Chance of winning
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- 1BarcelonaKalshi21.5%Polymarket23.5%
- 2Paris Saint-GermainKalshi19%Polymarket18.5%
- 3Real MadridKalshi14%Polymarket13.5%
- 4ArsenalKalshi13.5%Polymarket13.5%
- 5Bayern MunichKalshi13.5%Polymarket12.5%
- 6Manchester CityKalshi5.5%Polymarket5.5%
- 7LiverpoolKalshi3.5%Polymarket3.6%
- 8Atlético MadridKalshi1.5%Polymarket2.4%
- 9Inter MilanKalshi1.5%Polymarket1.8%
- 10ComoKalshi1.5%Polymarket1.6%
Kalshi and Polymarket each list 36 clubs for the 2027 Champions League winner, and only one of them can settle Yes.
| Club | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 21.5% | 23.5% |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 19% | 18.5% |
| Real Madrid | 14% | 13.5% |
| Arsenal | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Bayern Munich | 13.5% | 12.5% |
| Manchester City | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| Liverpool | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| Atlético Madrid | 1.5% | 2.4% |
| Inter Milan | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| Como | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| Aston Villa | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.5% | 1% |
| Manchester United | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| Real Betis | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Roma | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Sporting CP | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Villarreal | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Club Brugge | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Napoli | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Bodø/Glimt | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Fenerbahçe | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Galatasaray | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Porto | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| PSV Eindhoven | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| RB Leipzig | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| AEK Athens | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Feyenoord | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| LASK | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Lens | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Lille | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Sabah | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Slavia Prague | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Slovan Bratislava | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Viking | 0.5% | <0.1% |
Each venue settles a club's market Yes only if that club wins, and the dates below come from the venues' own listings.
- Kalshi. A club's market settles Yes if that club is the 2026-27 Champions League winner, and the market closes once a champion is declared. Kalshi expects to settle on 5 June 2027.
- Polymarket. A club's market settles Yes if that club wins the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League, and settles No as soon as the club can no longer win, for example when it is knocked out of the playoffs. The market is scheduled to close on 19 June 2027, and if no champion is declared by then Polymarket resolves it to Other, not to a listed club.
- The chances. A Yes share pays $1 if the club wins, so a price of 14 cents is a 14% chance. For Kalshi we use the midpoint of the best bid and ask when they are within 10 cents of each other, and the last trade when they are not. For Polymarket we use the price it publishes for Yes.
- The volume. Kalshi counts contracts and Polymarket counts US dollars, so the two totals cannot be compared directly.
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These are the questions people ask about Kalshi and Polymarket odds on the 2027 Champions League winner.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026-27 Champions League on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi rates Barcelona first, at 21.5%, and Polymarket rates Barcelona first, at 23.5%, as read on 14 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
What do the 2027 Champions League final odds on this page mean?
Each percentage is the price of a Yes share in one club's market. A share pays $1 if the club wins, so a price of 14 cents means the market gives that club about a 14% chance. It is what traders are paying, not a promise: a club at 14% still loses about 86 times in 100 if the prices are set well.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket differ for this market?
Both ask which club wins the 2027 Champions League final, and both pay $1 for a winning share. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, counts trading in contracts (6.3M contracts so far), while Polymarket counts US dollars ($74.7M so far), so the totals cannot be compared directly. Kalshi expects to settle on 5 June 2027. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 19 June 2027 and resolves to Other if no champion is declared by then.
Which club do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on most?
Barcelona: Kalshi gives 21.5% and Polymarket gives 23.5%, a gap of 2 points.
Why do the chances not add up to exactly 100%?
Each club's price is set by its own trading, so the prices need not add up to exactly 100%. On this read Kalshi's chances add up to 110% and Polymarket's to 103.6%. Kalshi's total runs above 100% partly because a club quoted between 0 and 1 cent shows as 0.5%.
When does the market on the 2027 Champions League winner settle?
Kalshi expects to settle on 5 June 2027, once the champion is declared. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 19 June 2027, which is the latest it can settle.
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