2028 presidential election odds today
Kalshi and Polymarket both rate Jon Ossoff as the likeliest 2028 US presidential election winner, at 17.5% on Kalshi and 17.6% on Polymarket.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a candidate's market turned into a percentage. Kalshi titles its market "2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?" and Polymarket titles its market "Presidential Election Winner 2028", and both settle on the person who wins the 2028 US presidential election. We read Kalshi and Polymarket's public market data on 14 Nov 2026, 8:47 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 14 Nov 2026, 8:47 PM ET
- Kalshi
- 17.5%
- Jon Ossoff leads
- Polymarket
- 17.6%
- Jon Ossoff leads
- Settles
- 21 Jan
- 2029, per Kalshi's listing
Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket rate the 10 candidates most likely to win the 2028 US presidential election, side by side.
Chance of winning
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- 1Jon OssoffKalshi17.5%Polymarket17.6%
- 2J.D. VanceKalshi12.5%Polymarket15.3%
- 3Alexandria Ocasio-CortezKalshi9.7%Polymarket9.3%
- 4Marco RubioKalshi9.2%Polymarket9.2%
- 5Gavin NewsomKalshi7.8%Polymarket7.3%
- 6Ron DeSantisKalshi6.3%Polymarket6.5%
- 7Kamala HarrisKalshi3.5%Polymarket3.3%
- 8Pete ButtigiegKalshi2.9%Polymarket2.9%
- 9Josh ShapiroKalshi2.6%Polymarket2.6%
- 10Andy BeshearKalshi3.1%Polymarket1.7%
Kalshi lists 52 candidates and Polymarket lists 42 for the 2028 US presidential election winner, and only one of them can settle Yes.
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| J.D. Vance | 12.5% | 15.3% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9.7% | 9.3% |
| Marco Rubio | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Gavin Newsom | 7.8% | 7.3% |
| Ron DeSantis | 6.3% | 6.5% |
| Kamala Harris | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Andy Beshear | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Mark Kelly | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Raphael Warnock | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| James Talarico | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Wes Moore | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| J.B. Pritzker | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | n/a | 1.3% |
| Donald Trump | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Thomas Massie | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Tucker Carlson | 1% | 1.4% |
| John McEntee | 1.1% | n/a |
| Ro Khanna | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Ted Cruz | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Brian Kemp | 0.6% | n/a |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Cory Booker | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.4% | n/a |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Nikki Haley | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Michelle Obama | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joe Kent | 0.3% | n/a |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | n/a |
| Elon Musk | n/a | 0.2% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Byron Donalds | 0.1% | n/a |
| Elissa Slotkin | n/a | 0.1% |
| Hunter Biden | 0.1% | n/a |
| Josh Hawley | 0.1% | n/a |
| Roy Cooper | 0.1% | n/a |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Tom Cotton | n/a | 0.1% |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Dean Phillips | <0.1% | n/a |
| Doug Burgum | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Gregory Bovino | <0.1% | n/a |
| Jared Kushner | <0.1% | n/a |
| Larry Hogan | <0.1% | n/a |
| Mikie Sherrill | <0.1% | n/a |
Each venue settles a candidate's market Yes only if that candidate wins, and the dates below come from the venues' own listings.
- Kalshi. A candidate's market settles Yes if that candidate is the next person inaugurated as President, for the term that begins in 2029, and the market closes once a person has been inaugurated as President. Kalshi expects to settle on 21 January 2029.
- Polymarket. A candidate's market settles Yes if that candidate wins the 2028 US presidential election as the three news sources named in its rules call it, or as the inauguration decides it if they do not agree by then, and settles No if another candidate wins. The market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028.
- The chances. A Yes share pays $1 if the candidate wins, so a price of 14 cents is a 14% chance. For Kalshi we use the midpoint of the best bid and ask when they are within 10 cents of each other, and the last trade when they are not. For Polymarket we use the price it publishes for Yes.
- The volume. Kalshi counts contracts and Polymarket counts US dollars, so the two totals cannot be compared directly.
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These are the questions people ask about Kalshi and Polymarket odds on the 2028 US presidential election winner.
Who is the favorite to win the 2028 US presidential election on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi rates Jon Ossoff first, at 17.5%, and Polymarket rates Jon Ossoff first, at 17.6%, as read on 14 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
What do the 2028 US presidential election odds on this page mean?
Each percentage is the price of a Yes share in one candidate's market. A share pays $1 if the candidate wins, so a price of 14 cents means the market gives that candidate about a 14% chance. It is what traders are paying, not a promise: a candidate at 14% still loses about 86 times in 100 if the prices are set well.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket differ for this market?
Both ask which candidate wins the 2028 US presidential election, and both pay $1 for a winning share. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, counts trading in contracts (103M contracts so far), while Polymarket counts US dollars ($743M so far), so the totals cannot be compared directly. Kalshi expects to settle on 21 January 2029. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028.
Which candidate do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on most?
J.D. Vance: Kalshi gives 12.5% and Polymarket gives 15.3%, a gap of 2.9 points.
Why do the chances not add up to exactly 100%?
Each candidate's price is set by its own trading, so the prices need not add up to exactly 100%. On this read Kalshi's chances add up to 101.4% and Polymarket's to 92.5%. Polymarket lists 42 candidates to Kalshi's 52, and its total counts only the candidates it lists.
When does the market on the 2028 US presidential election winner settle?
Kalshi expects to settle on 21 January 2029, when the next President is inaugurated. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028, and it settles once the race is called.
Can I make a free prediction on BitPredict?
Yes, but BitPredict covers crypto, not US presidential elections. It is free to play: you call Bitcoin or another coin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.