NBA Rookie of the Year odds today
Kalshi and Polymarket both rate Yaxel Lendeborg as the likeliest 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year, at 40% on Kalshi and 33.5% on Polymarket.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a player's market turned into a percentage. Kalshi titles its market "Pro Basketball Rookie of the Year Winner" and Polymarket titles its market "NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year", and both settle on the player named Rookie of the Year for the 2026-27 NBA regular season. We read Kalshi and Polymarket's public market data on 14 Nov 2026, 9:13 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 14 Nov 2026, 9:13 PM ET
- Kalshi
- 40%
- Yaxel Lendeborg leads
- Polymarket
- 33.5%
- Yaxel Lendeborg leads
- Settles
- 8 Jul
- 2027, per Kalshi's listing
Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket rate the 10 players most likely to win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year award, side by side.
Chance of winning
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- 1Yaxel LendeborgKalshi40%Polymarket33.5%
- 2Cameron BoozerKalshi18.5%Polymarket23.5%
- 3Darius Acuff Jr.Kalshi20%Polymarket14.5%
- 4Darryn PetersonKalshi7.5%Polymarket7.6%
- 5AJ DybantsaKalshi6%Polymarket8.5%
- 6Caleb WilsonKalshi1.5%Polymarket3.7%
- 7Kingston FlemingsKalshi0.5%Polymarket1.4%
- 8Ryan ConwellKalshi0.5%Polymarketn/a
- 9Brayden BurriesKalshi0.5%Polymarket0.3%
- 10Aday MaraKalshi0.5%Polymarket0.3%
Kalshi lists 17 players and Polymarket lists 24 for the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year, and only one of them can settle Yes.
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 40% | 33.5% |
| Cameron Boozer | 18.5% | 23.5% |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 20% | 14.5% |
| Darryn Peterson | 7.5% | 7.6% |
| AJ Dybantsa | 6% | 8.5% |
| Caleb Wilson | 1.5% | 3.7% |
| Kingston Flemings | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Ryan Conwell | 0.5% | n/a |
| Brayden Burries | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Aday Mara | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ament | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Bennett Stirtz | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Dailyn Swain | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Hannes Steinbach | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Keaton Wagler | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Sergio De Larrea | n/a | 0.3% |
| Allen Graves | n/a | 0.1% |
| Chris Cenac Jr. | n/a | 0.1% |
| Christian Anderson | n/a | 0.1% |
| Ebuka Okorie | n/a | 0.1% |
| Labaron Philon Jr. | n/a | 0.1% |
| Tarris Reed Jr. | n/a | 0.1% |
| Zuby Ejiofor | n/a | 0.1% |
Each venue settles a player's market Yes only if that player wins, and the dates below come from the venues' own listings.
- Kalshi. A player's market settles Yes if that player wins the Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 pro basketball season, and the market can close as soon as the NBA Rookie of the Year winner is announced. Kalshi expects to settle by 8 July 2027.
- Polymarket. A player's market settles Yes if that player wins the Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NBA regular season, and settles No if another player wins. The market is scheduled to close on 30 April 2027, and if no winner is announced by then Polymarket resolves it to Other, not to a listed player.
- The chances. A Yes share pays $1 if the player wins, so a price of 14 cents is a 14% chance. For Kalshi we use the midpoint of the best bid and ask when they are within 10 cents of each other, and the last trade when they are not. For Polymarket we use the price it publishes for Yes.
- The volume. Kalshi counts contracts and Polymarket counts US dollars, so the two totals cannot be compared directly.
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These are the questions people ask about Kalshi and Polymarket odds on the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year award on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi rates Yaxel Lendeborg first, at 40%, and Polymarket rates Yaxel Lendeborg first, at 33.5%, as read on 14 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
What do the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year award odds on this page mean?
Each percentage is the price of a Yes share in one player's market. A share pays $1 if the player wins, so a price of 14 cents means the market gives that player about a 14% chance. It is what traders are paying, not a promise: a player at 14% still loses about 86 times in 100 if the prices are set well.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket differ for this market?
Both ask which player wins the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year award, and both pay $1 for a winning share. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, counts trading in contracts (3.3M contracts so far), while Polymarket counts US dollars ($8.3M so far), so the totals cannot be compared directly. Kalshi expects to settle by 8 July 2027. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 30 April 2027 and resolves to Other if no winner is announced by then.
Which player do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on most?
Yaxel Lendeborg: Kalshi gives 40% and Polymarket gives 33.5%, a gap of 6.6 points.
Why do the chances not add up to exactly 100%?
Each player's price is set by its own trading, so the prices need not add up to exactly 100%. On this read Kalshi's chances add up to 99% and Polymarket's to 95.1%. Kalshi lists 17 players to Polymarket's 24, and its total counts only the players it lists.
When does the market on the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year settle?
Kalshi's market can settle as soon as the NBA Rookie of the Year winner is announced, and Kalshi expects to settle by 8 July 2027. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 30 April 2027, and it settles as soon as the winner is announced.
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Yes, but BitPredict covers crypto, not pro basketball. It is free to play: you call Bitcoin or another coin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.