NBA MVP odds today
Kalshi and Polymarket both rate Victor Wembanyama as the likeliest 2026-27 NBA MVP, at 42.5% on Kalshi and 42% on Polymarket.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a player's market turned into a percentage. Kalshi titles its market "Pro Basketball MVP Winner" and Polymarket titles its market "NBA: 2026-27 MVP", and both settle on the player named Most Valuable Player of the 2026-27 NBA regular season. We read Kalshi and Polymarket's public market data on 14 Nov 2026, 9:12 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 14 Nov 2026, 9:12 PM ET
- Kalshi
- 42.5%
- Victor Wembanyama leads
- Polymarket
- 42%
- Victor Wembanyama leads
- Settles
- 31 Jul
- 2027, per Kalshi's listing
Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket rate the 10 players most likely to win the 2026-27 NBA MVP award, side by side.
Chance of winning
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- 1Victor WembanyamaKalshi42.5%Polymarket42%
- 2Luka DoncicKalshi34.5%Polymarket35.3%
- 3Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderKalshi6.5%Polymarket7.5%
- 4Nikola JokićKalshi2.5%Polymarket5.5%
- 5Jayson TatumKalshi4.5%Polymarket2.9%
- 6Cade CunninghamKalshi1.5%Polymarket1.9%
- 7Tyrese MaxeyKalshi1.5%Polymarket1.7%
- 8Cooper FlaggKalshi1.5%Polymarket1.5%
- 9Giannis AntetokounmpoKalshi1.5%Polymarket1.5%
- 10Stephen CurryKalshi0.5%Polymarket1.1%
Kalshi lists 53 players and Polymarket lists 32 for the 2026-27 NBA MVP, and only one of them can settle Yes.
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 42.5% | 42% |
| Luka Doncic | 34.5% | 35.3% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 6.5% | 7.5% |
| Nikola Jokić | 2.5% | 5.5% |
| Jayson Tatum | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Cade Cunningham | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| Cooper Flagg | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Stephen Curry | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| Anthony Edwards | 0.5% | 1% |
| Amen Thompson | 0.5% | n/a |
| Chet Holmgren | 0.5% | n/a |
| Derrick White | 0.5% | n/a |
| Dylan Harper | 0.5% | n/a |
| Ivica Zubac | 0.5% | n/a |
| Jalen Green | 0.5% | n/a |
| Jalen Williams | 0.5% | n/a |
| James Harden | 0.5% | n/a |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 0.5% | n/a |
| Jarrett Allen | 0.5% | n/a |
| Jimmy Butler | 0.5% | n/a |
| Julius Randle | 0.5% | n/a |
| Kon Knueppel | 0.5% | n/a |
| Mikal Bridges | 0.5% | n/a |
| OG Anunoby | 0.5% | n/a |
| Pascal Siakam | 0.5% | n/a |
| Paul George | 0.5% | n/a |
| Stephon Castle | 0.5% | n/a |
| Trae Young | 0.5% | n/a |
| Tyler Herro | 0.5% | n/a |
| VJ Edgecombe | 0.5% | n/a |
| Alperen Sengun | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Deni Avdija | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Jaylen Brown | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Tyrese Haliburton | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Anthony Davis | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Donovan Mitchell | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jalen Johnson | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Scottie Barnes | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Austin Reaves | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Devin Booker | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Evan Mobley | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Jamal Murray | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Joel Embiid | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Kawhi Leonard | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Kevin Durant | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| LaMelo Ball | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| LeBron James | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Paolo Banchero | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Zion Williamson | 0.5% | <0.1% |
Each venue settles a player's market Yes only if that player wins, and the dates below come from the venues' own listings.
- Kalshi. A player's market settles Yes if that player wins the MVP award for the 2026-27 pro basketball season, and the market can close as soon as the NBA MVP winner is announced. Kalshi expects to settle by 31 July 2027.
- Polymarket. A player's market settles Yes if that player wins the Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NBA regular season, and settles No if another player wins. The market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2027, and if no winner is announced by then Polymarket resolves it to Other, not to a listed player.
- The chances. A Yes share pays $1 if the player wins, so a price of 14 cents is a 14% chance. For Kalshi we use the midpoint of the best bid and ask when they are within 10 cents of each other, and the last trade when they are not. For Polymarket we use the price it publishes for Yes.
- The volume. Kalshi counts contracts and Polymarket counts US dollars, so the two totals cannot be compared directly.
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These are the questions people ask about Kalshi and Polymarket odds on the 2026-27 NBA MVP.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026-27 NBA MVP award on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi rates Victor Wembanyama first, at 42.5%, and Polymarket rates Victor Wembanyama first, at 42%, as read on 14 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
What do the 2026-27 NBA MVP award odds on this page mean?
Each percentage is the price of a Yes share in one player's market. A share pays $1 if the player wins, so a price of 14 cents means the market gives that player about a 14% chance. It is what traders are paying, not a promise: a player at 14% still loses about 86 times in 100 if the prices are set well.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket differ for this market?
Both ask which player wins the 2026-27 NBA MVP award, and both pay $1 for a winning share. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, counts trading in contracts (7.5M contracts so far), while Polymarket counts US dollars ($410K so far), so the totals cannot be compared directly. Kalshi expects to settle by 31 July 2027. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2027 and resolves to Other if no winner is announced by then.
Which player do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on most?
Nikola Jokić: Kalshi gives 2.5% and Polymarket gives 5.5%, a gap of 3 points.
Why do the chances not add up to exactly 100%?
Each player's price is set by its own trading, so the prices need not add up to exactly 100%. On this read Kalshi's chances add up to 118.5% and Polymarket's to 104.7%. Kalshi's total runs above 100% partly because a player quoted between 0 and 1 cent shows as 0.5%. Polymarket lists 32 players to Kalshi's 53, and its total counts only the players it lists.
When does the market on the 2026-27 NBA MVP settle?
Kalshi's market can settle as soon as the NBA MVP winner is announced, and Kalshi expects to settle by 31 July 2027. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2027, and it settles as soon as the winner is announced.
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