Heisman Trophy odds today
Kalshi and Polymarket both rate Jeremiah Smith as the likeliest 2026 Heisman Trophy winner, at 56.5% on Kalshi and 55.5% on Polymarket.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a player's market turned into a percentage. Kalshi titles its market "Heisman Trophy Winner" and Polymarket titles its market "NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner", and both settle on the player who wins the 2026 Heisman Trophy. We read Kalshi and Polymarket's public market data on 14 Nov 2026, 9:13 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 14 Nov 2026, 9:13 PM ET
- Kalshi
- 56.5%
- Jeremiah Smith leads
- Polymarket
- 55.5%
- Jeremiah Smith leads
- Settles
- 1 Jan
- 2027, per Kalshi's listing
Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket rate the 10 players most likely to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy, side by side.
Chance of winning
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- 1Jeremiah SmithKalshi56.5%Polymarket55.5%
- 2Darian MensahKalshi19.5%Polymarket21.5%
- 3Drew MestemakerKalshi7.5%Polymarket5.8%
- 4CJ CarrKalshi5.5%Polymarket7.2%
- 5Devon DampierKalshi4.5%Polymarketn/a
- 6Gunner StocktonKalshi3.5%Polymarket3%
- 7Jayden MaiavaKalshi0.5%Polymarket2.9%
- 8Gio LopezKalshi1.5%Polymarketn/a
- 9Keelon RussellKalshi1%Polymarket1.7%
- 10Jesse LegreeKalshi0.5%Polymarket1.7%
Kalshi lists 52 players and Polymarket lists 32 for the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner, and only one of them can settle Yes.
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | 56.5% | 55.5% |
| Darian Mensah | 19.5% | 21.5% |
| Drew Mestemaker | 7.5% | 5.8% |
| CJ Carr | 5.5% | 7.2% |
| Devon Dampier | 4.5% | n/a |
| Gunner Stockton | 3.5% | 3% |
| Jayden Maiava | 0.5% | 2.9% |
| Gio Lopez | 1.5% | n/a |
| Keelon Russell | 1% | 1.7% |
| Jesse Legree | 0.5% | 1.7% |
| Bo Jackson | 0.5% | 1.6% |
| Sam Leavitt | 0.5% | 1.5% |
| LaNorris Sellers | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| Julian Sayin | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| Josh Hoover | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Kevin Jennings | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Malachi Toney | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Aaron Philo | 0.5% | n/a |
| Anthony Colandrea | 0.5% | n/a |
| Austin Simmons | 0.5% | n/a |
| Bear Bachmeier | 0.5% | n/a |
| Charlie Becker | 0.5% | n/a |
| CJ Bailey | 0.5% | n/a |
| Colin Simmons | 0.5% | n/a |
| Conner Weigman | 0.5% | n/a |
| DeSean Bishop | 0.5% | n/a |
| Dylan Raiola | 0.5% | n/a |
| Faizon Brandon | 0.5% | n/a |
| Lincoln Kienholz | 0.5% | n/a |
| Mason Heintschel | 0.5% | n/a |
| Michael Hawkins Jr. | 0.5% | n/a |
| Nate Sheppard | 0.5% | n/a |
| Nico Iamaleava | 0.5% | n/a |
| Wayne Knight | 0.5% | n/a |
| William “Pop” Watson III | 0.5% | n/a |
| Arch Manning | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Dante Moore | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Ahmad Hardy | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Austin Mack | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Sorsby | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| John Mateer | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kewan Lacy | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Rocco Becht | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Will Hammond | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Bryce Underwood | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Byrum Brown | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Demond Williams Jr. | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Jadan Baugh | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Kamario Taylor | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Marcel Reed | 0.5% | <0.1% |
Each venue settles a player's market Yes only if that player wins, and the dates below come from the venues' own listings.
- Kalshi. A player's market settles Yes if that player wins the Heisman Trophy for the 2026-27 college football season, and the market can close as soon as the Heisman Trophy winner is announced. Kalshi expects to settle by 1 January 2027.
- Polymarket. A player's market settles Yes if that player wins the 2026 Heisman Trophy, announced at the Heisman ceremony its rules put on 12 December 2026, and settles No if another player wins. The market is scheduled to close on 26 December 2026, and if no winner is announced by then Polymarket resolves it to Other, not to a listed player.
- The chances. A Yes share pays $1 if the player wins, so a price of 14 cents is a 14% chance. For Kalshi we use the midpoint of the best bid and ask when they are within 10 cents of each other, and the last trade when they are not. For Polymarket we use the price it publishes for Yes.
- The volume. Kalshi counts contracts and Polymarket counts US dollars, so the two totals cannot be compared directly.
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
This page is about college football, but BitPredict asks a simpler question than these markets, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Kalshi and Polymarket odds on the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi rates Jeremiah Smith first, at 56.5%, and Polymarket rates Jeremiah Smith first, at 55.5%, as read on 14 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
What do the 2026 Heisman Trophy odds on this page mean?
Each percentage is the price of a Yes share in one player's market. A share pays $1 if the player wins, so a price of 14 cents means the market gives that player about a 14% chance. It is what traders are paying, not a promise: a player at 14% still loses about 86 times in 100 if the prices are set well.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket differ for this market?
Both ask which player wins the 2026 Heisman Trophy, and both pay $1 for a winning share. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, counts trading in contracts (45.2M contracts so far), while Polymarket counts US dollars ($589K so far), so the totals cannot be compared directly. Kalshi expects to settle by 1 January 2027. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 26 December 2026 and resolves to Other if no winner is announced by then.
Which player do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on most?
Jayden Maiava: Kalshi gives 0.5% and Polymarket gives 2.9%, a gap of 2.4 points.
Why do the chances not add up to exactly 100%?
Each player's price is set by its own trading, so the prices need not add up to exactly 100%. On this read Kalshi's chances add up to 121.5% and Polymarket's to 110.1%. Kalshi's total runs above 100% partly because a player quoted between 0 and 1 cent shows as 0.5%. Polymarket lists 32 players to Kalshi's 52, and its total counts only the players it lists.
When does the market on the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner settle?
Kalshi's market can settle as soon as the Heisman Trophy winner is announced, and Kalshi expects to settle by 1 January 2027. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 26 December 2026, and it settles as soon as the winner is announced.
Can I make a free prediction on BitPredict?
Yes, but BitPredict covers crypto, not college football. It is free to play: you call Bitcoin or another coin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.