2028 Republican nominee odds today
Kalshi and Polymarket both rate J.D. Vance as the likeliest 2028 Republican presidential nominee, at 35.5% on Kalshi and 37.4% on Polymarket.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a candidate's market turned into a percentage. Kalshi titles its market "2028 Republican presidential nominee" and Polymarket titles its market "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028", and both settle on the candidate who wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. We read Kalshi and Polymarket's public market data on 14 Nov 2026, 7:06 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 14 Nov 2026, 7:06 PM ET
- Kalshi
- 35.5%
- J.D. Vance leads
- Polymarket
- 37.4%
- J.D. Vance leads
- Settles
- 7 Nov
- 2028, per Kalshi's listing
Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket rate the 10 candidates most likely to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, side by side.
Chance of winning
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- 1J.D. VanceKalshi35.5%Polymarket37.4%
- 2Marco RubioKalshi17.5%Polymarket16.6%
- 3Ron DeSantisKalshi15.5%Polymarket14.8%
- 4Tucker CarlsonKalshi2.8%Polymarket4.6%
- 5John McEnteeKalshi4.6%Polymarket2.4%
- 6Ted CruzKalshi3%Polymarket2.9%
- 7Glenn YoungkinKalshi2.9%Polymarket2.1%
- 8Thomas MassieKalshi2.3%Polymarket2.8%
- 9Brian KempKalshi2.5%Polymarket1.8%
- 10Donald Trump Jr.Kalshi1.3%Polymarket0.9%
Kalshi lists 53 candidates and Polymarket lists 42 for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, and only one of them can settle Yes.
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 35.5% | 37.4% |
| Marco Rubio | 17.5% | 16.6% |
| Ron DeSantis | 15.5% | 14.8% |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.8% | 4.6% |
| John McEntee | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Ted Cruz | 3% | 2.9% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Thomas Massie | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| Brian Kemp | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Donald Trump | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Josh Hawley | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Byron Donalds | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| Rand Paul | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Tom Cotton | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Nikki Haley | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Chris Christie | 0.4% | n/a |
| Joe Kent | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Tim Scott | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Katie Britt | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Mike Pence | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Dave McCormick | 0.3% | n/a |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Pratt | 0.3% | n/a |
| Candace Owens | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Doug Burgum | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Greg Abbott | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Steve Bannon | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Chris Sununu | 0.1% | n/a |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kim Kardashian | n/a | 0.1% |
| Larry Hogan | 0.1% | n/a |
| Mike Pompeo | 0.1% | n/a |
| Rick Scott | n/a | 0.1% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| John Thune | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kristi Noem | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Erika Kirk | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ben Shapiro | <0.1% | n/a |
| Gregory Bovino | <0.1% | n/a |
| Jared Kushner | <0.1% | n/a |
| Jeff Bezos | <0.1% | n/a |
| Lara Trump | <0.1% | n/a |
| Matt Gaetz | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Mike Johnson | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Nicki Minaj | <0.1% | n/a |
| Wesley Hunt | <0.1% | n/a |
Each venue settles a candidate's market Yes only if that candidate wins, and the dates below come from the venues' own listings.
- Kalshi. A candidate's market settles Yes if that candidate wins and accepts the Republican Party's 2028 nomination for President, and the market can close as soon as a candidate accepts the Republican nomination. Kalshi lists 7 November 2028 as the latest day it settles.
- Polymarket. A candidate's market settles Yes if that candidate wins and accepts the Republican Party's 2028 nomination for President, as a consensus of official Republican Party sources reports it, and settles No if another candidate wins. The market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028.
- The chances. A Yes share pays $1 if the candidate wins, so a price of 14 cents is a 14% chance. For Kalshi we use the midpoint of the best bid and ask when they are within 10 cents of each other, and the last trade when they are not. For Polymarket we use the price it publishes for Yes.
- The volume. Kalshi counts contracts and Polymarket counts US dollars, so the two totals cannot be compared directly.
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These are the questions people ask about Kalshi and Polymarket odds on the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
Who is the favorite to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi rates J.D. Vance first, at 35.5%, and Polymarket rates J.D. Vance first, at 37.4%, as read on 14 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
What do the 2028 Republican presidential nomination odds on this page mean?
Each percentage is the price of a Yes share in one candidate's market. A share pays $1 if the candidate wins, so a price of 14 cents means the market gives that candidate about a 14% chance. It is what traders are paying, not a promise: a candidate at 14% still loses about 86 times in 100 if the prices are set well.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket differ for this market?
Both ask which candidate wins the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, and both pay $1 for a winning share. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, counts trading in contracts (94.8M contracts so far), while Polymarket counts US dollars ($738M so far), so the totals cannot be compared directly. Kalshi lists 7 November 2028 as the latest day it settles. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028.
Which candidate do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on most?
John McEntee: Kalshi gives 4.6% and Polymarket gives 2.4%, a gap of 2.3 points.
Why do the chances not add up to exactly 100%?
Each candidate's price is set by its own trading, so the prices need not add up to exactly 100%. On this read Kalshi's chances add up to 102.4% and Polymarket's to 95.3%. Polymarket lists 42 candidates to Kalshi's 53, and its total counts only the candidates it lists.
When does the market on the 2028 Republican presidential nominee settle?
Kalshi's market can settle as soon as a candidate accepts the Republican nomination, and 7 November 2028 is the latest day it settles. Polymarket's market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028, and it settles once official Republican Party sources agree on the nominee.
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