Best prediction markets
The best prediction market for you depends on whether you want to trade for money or practise for free.
We compared seven prediction markets: BitPredict, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood, Manifold and Metaculus. BitPredict is ours, so it is first, and where it wins is plain: it is free, nothing is staked, and your calls are scored on accuracy in public. For trading real money on events the regulated exchanges below are the better tools. Every rival fact was checked in November 2026 and links to its source.
Seven prediction markets, side by side, show a clear split between free and real money.
Seven prediction markets at a glance
BitPredictNo money inScored on accuracyCrypto up or down calls over 24 hours
KalshiReal moneyCFTC regulatedEvent contracts on many kinds of events
PolymarketReal moneyUS close-onlyPolitics, sport, crypto, geopolitics and more
PredictItReal moneyPolitical eventsPolitical questions, under a CFTC no-action letter
RobinhoodReal moneyUS residentsSport, politics, weather and more, from partner exchanges
ManifoldPlay moneyCannot be cashed outAny question a user creates a market for
MetaculusScored forecastsCommunity questionsForecasting questions, scored once they resolve
| Prediction market | What you put in | What it covers | What to know | Read from |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitPredict | Nothing, free | Up or down calls on listed coins over 24 hours | Calls lock with a timestamp and settle against the real price, and the record is public | How it works |
| Kalshi | Real money | Event contracts on many kinds of events | Says it is regulated by the CFTC as a designated contract market | Kalshi help centre |
| Polymarket | Real money (USDC) | Fee categories include crypto, sports, politics, economics and geopolitics | The United States is close-only: close existing positions, no new ones | Polymarket docs |
| PredictIt | Real money | Political events | A CFTC no-action letter caps each person's stake in one contract | CFTC Letter 25-20 |
| Robinhood | Real money | Event contracts from partner exchanges, across sports, politics, weather, commodities and entertainment | Needs an approved account, US residence and a state where they are offered | Robinhood support |
| Manifold | Play money | Any question a user creates a market for | Its play money cannot be converted to cash | Manifold about page |
| Metaculus | Your forecasts | Forecasting questions | Forecasts get baseline and peer scores once a question resolves | Metaculus scores FAQ |
The facts in the table were checked in November 2026 on the pages in the last column. Fees and limits change, so each venue's own page has the final word.
BitPredict wins on price, because nothing you do on it can cost you money.
You call a coin up or down over 24 hours. There is no deposit, no wallet and no contract to buy, and every settled call feeds a public hit rate on the crypto leaderboard. That is the whole product, and it is the one thing on this page that is free to try with a real market price on the other end.
It does not pay out, and it covers crypto direction, not elections or sport. If you want a payout on an event, use one of the real-money venues below. If you want to find out whether your read on a coin is any good before you risk money anywhere, start here.
Kalshi is a regulated exchange where you fund an account and trade event contracts.
Kalshi says it is regulated by the CFTC as a designated contract market (Kalshi help centre, read November 2026). It earns revenue through a transaction fee on the expected earnings of a contract, fees vary by market, and only certain markets charge makers, the traders who leave resting orders on the book (Kalshi fees, read November 2026). For regulated rails and many event types, it is the benchmark.
More in our Kalshi review, the Kalshi fees page and the Kalshi alternatives guide.
Polymarket is a global market whose taker fees depend on the category and where the United States is close-only.
Polymarket's documentation says only takers pay fees and makers never do, and that there are no Polymarket fees to deposit or withdraw USDC, although intermediaries may charge their own (Polymarket fees, read November 2026). The same page lists the taker fee rate by category.
| Category | Taker fee rate | Peak fee on 100 shares at 50 cents |
|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 0.07 | $1.75 |
| Sports | 0.05 | $1.25 |
| Economics, culture, weather and other | 0.05 | $1.25 |
| Finance, politics, mentions and tech | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| Geopolitics | 0 | $0 (fee-free) |
Its geoblock page lists the United States as close-only on the website and the API (Polymarket docs, read November 2026). More in our Polymarket review, the Polymarket fees page and the Polymarket alternatives guide, or the head-to-head in Kalshi vs Polymarket.
Robinhood lets US residents trade event contracts that partner exchanges list.
Robinhood's support article says it offers event contracts through KalshiEX, ForecastEX, Rothera Exchange and Clearing, or Crypto.com Derivatives North America. You need an approved Robinhood Derivatives account, you must be 18 or older with an individual brokerage account and a US resident, and contracts are not available in all states. The Robinhood commission is capped at $0.01 per contract, and exchanges typically add a fee of up to $0.01 per contract, on opening and closing trades. Categories include sports, politics, weather, commodities and entertainment (Robinhood support, read November 2026). More in our Robinhood prediction markets guide.
PredictIt is a political market with a cap on how much one person can hold in a contract.
PredictIt runs under CFTC Letter 25-20 of 14 July 2025, which says the market has been operating under the trade name PredictIt, is restricted to political events, and sets each participant's limit in any one contract at the federal limit on individual campaign contributions per election, per candidate. The letter puts that limit at $3,500 and says it is adjusted over time. It also removed the earlier cap of 5,000 traders in a contract (CFTC Letter 25-20, read November 2026). Check predictit.org for today's limits and listings. More in our PredictIt alternatives guide.
Manifold and Metaculus are built for different things, play-money markets and scored forecasting.
Manifold describes mana as the play-money currency used to bet on its markets, says every user starts with a free balance, and says mana cannot be converted to cash. It also runs prize drawings that pay real USDC, with a free entry once per drawing (Manifold about page, read November 2026). Anyone can create a market on any question, which is its strength and also why quality varies.
Metaculus is a forecasting community. Its scores FAQ says forecasts are scored once a question resolves, using baseline scores that compare you to an impartial baseline and peer scores that compare you to other forecasters (Metaculus scores FAQ, read November 2026). It rewards calibrated probabilities on a question, not a call on a price.
Which prediction market to pick comes down to what you want out of it.
- You want to practise calling crypto with no money at risk: BitPredict, then compare your hit rate with a coin flip.
- You want regulated real-money event contracts: Kalshi, or Robinhood if you already have a brokerage account there.
- You want global markets and can use them from where you live: Polymarket, after checking its geoblock page.
- You want political markets specifically: PredictIt, after checking its current limits on its own page.
- You want to forecast anything with play money: Manifold. You want scored long-form forecasting: Metaculus.
New to the idea? Start with what is a prediction market. Only interested in crypto? The best crypto prediction sites page narrows this to coins, and crypto betting explains how prediction markets differ from futures and casinos.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best prediction market?
It depends on whether you want to trade for money or practise for free. For real-money event contracts on regulated rails, Kalshi is the benchmark. For a free way to call crypto prices with nothing at risk, BitPredict is built for it.
What is the best free prediction market?
For crypto price direction, BitPredict: you call a coin up or down over 24 hours, with no money in and a public accuracy record. Manifold is free for play-money markets on any question, and Metaculus scores forecasts.
Is there a prediction market without real money?
Yes. BitPredict scores free crypto calls on accuracy, and Manifold uses play money that cannot be converted to cash.
Which prediction markets can US residents use?
Kalshi says it is regulated by the CFTC, Robinhood offers event contracts to US residents in states where they are available, and PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter for political events. Polymarket's documentation lists the United States as close-only. State rules change, so check each venue's own page.
How do prediction markets make money?
Mostly through fees. Polymarket charges takers a category-based fee, Kalshi charges a transaction fee on expected earnings, and Robinhood charges a commission of up to $0.01 per contract plus an exchange fee. BitPredict earns from optional Pro and Elite subscriptions.
Are prediction markets legal?
It depends on the venue and where you live. Some are regulated US exchanges, some restrict US users, and several states have acted against real-money ones. Our prediction markets by state page lists the actions we could confirm, with sources. This is not legal advice.
