Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give a US recession by the end of 2026 a 4.3% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Chance now
- 4.3%
- US recession 2026
- Traded
- $2.4M
- US dollars, on this market
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 30 Sep 2025 the chance of a US recession by the end of 2026 has fallen from 46% to 4.3%.
Chance over time
- Chance of Yes
Polymarket trades one Yes-or-No market on a US recession by the end of 2026, so its two prices add up to about 100%.
- Yes4.3%$2.4M traded
- No96%
Polymarket settles this market by the rules below, which say exactly what counts as Yes.
- Two quarters. Yes if real GDP shrinks for two quarters in a row between the second quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2026, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports it, first estimates included.
- An official call. Also Yes if the National Bureau of Economic Research announces a US recession in 2025 or 2026 before the first estimate of fourth-quarter 2026 GDP comes out.
- Otherwise. The market settles No.
A recession would test whether Bitcoin trades as a hedge or as a risky asset.
In the downturns so far, Bitcoin has mostly fallen with stocks rather than acting as a safe place to wait.
A recession also tends to bring rate cuts, which is why some crypto traders read a rising chance here as bad news first and good news later.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on a US recession by the end of 2026.
What chance does Polymarket give a US recession by the end of 2026?
4.3%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on a US recession by the end of 2026 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. Yes if real GDP shrinks for two quarters in a row between the second quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2026, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports it, first estimates included.
What does Polymarket's market on a US recession by the end of 2026 mean for Bitcoin?
In the downturns so far, Bitcoin has mostly fallen with stocks rather than acting as a safe place to wait.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.