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Polymarket odds today

Traders on Polymarket give the 10-year Treasury yield dipping below 4.5% before 2027 a 14% chance.

Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.

Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET

Chance now
14%
Below 4.5%
Traded
$525K
US dollars, across every outcome
Closes
31 Dec
2026, scheduled close

Since 22 Sep 2026 the chance of the 10-year Treasury yield dipping below 4.5% before 2027 has fallen from 33% to 14%.

Chance over time

0%20%40%60%80%Sep 2026Oct 202614%44%11%
  • Below 4.5%
  • Below 4.7%
  • Below 4.4%
Each line is the Yes price of one Polymarket market, about one reading a day from 22 Sep 2026 to 9 Nov 2026.
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Polymarket lists 16 open levels on how low the 10-year Treasury yield goes before 2027, and 2 have already settled.

  1. Below 4.8%70%$57.8K traded
  2. Below 4.7%44%$27K traded
  3. Below 4.6%27%$36.7K traded
  4. Below 4.5%14%$33.1K traded
  5. Below 4.4%11%$28.1K traded
  6. Below 4.3%7.8%$10.2K traded
  7. Below 4.2%4.7%$7.2K traded
  8. Below 4.1%4.3%$12.8K traded
  9. Below 3.9%3.5%$58.7K traded
  10. Below 3.8%3.3%$66.5K traded
  11. Below 3.7%1.4%$39.2K traded
  12. Below 3.6%2.5%$13.3K traded
  13. Below 3.5%1.7%$44K traded
  14. Below 3.0%1.7%$8.1K traded
  15. Below 2.0%1.7%$5.1K traded
  16. Below 1.0%1.8%$41.8K traded
Settled results (2)
  1. Below 4.9%Yes$3.6K traded
  2. Below 4.0%Yes$31.8K traded
Chances are read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026. See this market on Polymarket.

Each level settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.

  • What counts. The 10-year yield in the Treasury's daily par yield curve, on any day up to 31 December 2026, below the level.
  • The window. The first levels count every day from 11 November 2025; levels Polymarket listed in September and October 2026 count only from the day they were listed, so a level can be open while a lower one has already settled Yes.
  • The finish. A level settles Yes as soon as the yield is below it and No once the data for every day in the window is out.

A falling 10-year yield lowers the safe return Bitcoin competes with.

Lower long-term yields make borrowing cheaper across the economy and make a no-yield asset easier to hold, which has tended to help crypto.

A sudden drop usually means money is running to safety, so the reason behind the move matters as much as its size.

Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.

In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.

BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)

Up 68%Down 32%

BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)

As of

On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.

BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.

These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on how low the 10-year Treasury yield goes before 2027.

What chance does Polymarket give the 10-year Treasury yield dipping below 4.5% before 2027?

14%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.

When does the Polymarket market on how low the 10-year Treasury yield goes before 2027 settle?

It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. The 10-year yield in the Treasury's daily par yield curve, on any day up to 31 December 2026, below the level.

Which outcome of the Polymarket market on how low the 10-year Treasury yield goes before 2027 has the most money on it?

Below 3.8% is the busiest, with $66.5K traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.

What does Polymarket's market on how low the 10-year Treasury yield goes before 2027 mean for Bitcoin?

Lower long-term yields make borrowing cheaper across the economy and make a no-yield asset easier to hold, which has tended to help crypto.

Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?

Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.

These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.

See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.

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