Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.5% before 2027 a 5.1% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Chance now
- 5.1%
- 5.5% or higher
- Traded
- $1.1M
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 13 Nov 2025 the chance of the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.5% before 2027 has fallen from 20% to 5.1%.
Chance over time
- 5.5% or higher
- 5.4% or higher
- 5.7% or higher
Polymarket lists 4 open levels on how high the 10-year Treasury yield goes before 2027, and 9 have already settled.
- 5.4% or higher7%$93.1K traded
- 5.5% or higher5.1%$242K traded
- 5.7% or higher4%$130K traded
- 6.0% or higher1.5%$122K traded
Settled results (9)
- 4.3% or higherYes$6K traded
- 4.4% or higherYes$20.9K traded
- 4.5% or higherYes$37.4K traded
- 4.6% or higherYes$41.9K traded
- 4.8% or higherYes$75.9K traded
- 5.0% or higherYes$139K traded
- 5.1% or higherYes$25K traded
- 5.2% or higherYes$166K traded
- 5.3% or higherYes$39K traded
Each level settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.
- What counts. The 10-year yield in the Treasury's daily par yield curve, on any day up to 31 December 2026, at or above the level.
- The window. The first levels count every day from 11 November 2025; levels Polymarket listed later count only from the day they were listed.
- The finish. A level settles Yes as soon as it is reached and No once the data for every day in the window is out.
The 10-year yield is the safe return every other investment, Bitcoin included, has to beat.
When the 10-year pays 5% or more with no risk, the case for holding something that pays nothing gets harder, and crypto has often struggled in those stretches.
Yields falling back has tended to help risky assets, though a fall driven by fear can come with selling first.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on how high the 10-year Treasury yield goes before 2027.
What chance does Polymarket give the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.5% before 2027?
5.1%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on how high the 10-year Treasury yield goes before 2027 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. The 10-year yield in the Treasury's daily par yield curve, on any day up to 31 December 2026, at or above the level.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on how high the 10-year Treasury yield goes before 2027 has the most money on it?
5.5% or higher is the busiest, with $242K traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on how high the 10-year Treasury yield goes before 2027 mean for Bitcoin?
When the 10-year pays 5% or more with no risk, the case for holding something that pays nothing gets harder, and crypto has often struggled in those stretches.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.