Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket see overheating as the most likely state of the US economy at the end of 2026, at 79%.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Likeliest
- 79%
- Overheating (jobless under 5%, inflation 3.5% or more)
- Traded
- $140K
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Jan
- 2027, scheduled close
Since 25 Apr 2026 the chance of overheating in Polymarket's market on the state of the US economy at the end of 2026 has risen from 34% to 79%.
Chance over time
- Overheating (jobless under 5%, inflation 3.5% or more)
- Soft landing (jobless under 5%, inflation under 3.5%)
- Slack (jobless 5% or more, inflation under 3.5%)
Polymarket lists 4 possible outcomes for the state of the US economy at the end of 2026, and exactly one will settle Yes.
- Soft landing (jobless under 5%, inflation under 3.5%)19%$59.8K traded
- Stagflation (jobless 5% or more, inflation 3.5% or more)0.1%$16.3K traded
- Overheating (jobless under 5%, inflation 3.5% or more)79%$52.1K traded
- Slack (jobless 5% or more, inflation under 3.5%)0.1%$11.9K traded
Exactly one outcome settles Yes, and the rules below say how Polymarket picks it.
- The two numbers. The December 2026 unemployment rate (the official U-3 rate) and the yearly rise in consumer prices for December 2026, both from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The four boxes. Unemployment under or over 5%, inflation under or over 3.5%: each pair is one outcome, so exactly one settles Yes.
- Late data. If either December number is not out by 31 January 2027, the latest earlier month is used.
Each of the four outcomes points the Fed a different way, and Bitcoin with it.
Overheating means more hikes, slack means cuts, a soft landing means a slow drift lower and stagflation leaves the Fed stuck between the two.
Crypto has done best in past cycles when money was getting cheaper, which of the four boxes is slack and, more slowly, a soft landing.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on the state of the US economy at the end of 2026.
What is the most likely state of the US economy at the end of 2026, according to Polymarket?
Overheating, at 79%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on the state of the US economy at the end of 2026 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 January 2027. The December 2026 unemployment rate (the official U-3 rate) and the yearly rise in consumer prices for December 2026, both from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on the state of the US economy at the end of 2026 has the most money on it?
Soft landing (jobless under 5%, inflation under 3.5%) is the busiest, with $59.8K traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on the state of the US economy at the end of 2026 mean for Bitcoin?
Overheating means more hikes, slack means cuts, a soft landing means a slow drift lower and stagflation leaves the Fed stuck between the two.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.