Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give US unemployment reaching 5.0% in 2026 a 1.7% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Chance now
- 1.7%
- 5.0% or higher
- Traded
- $598K
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Mar
- 2027, scheduled close
Since 3 Jan 2026 the chance of US unemployment reaching 5.0% in 2026 has fallen from 59% to 1.7%.
Chance over time
- 5.0% or higher
- 5.5% or higher
- 6.0% or higher
Polymarket lists 5 open levels on how high US unemployment goes in 2026.
- 5.0% or higher1.7%$179K traded
- 5.5% or higher1.4%$218K traded
- 6.0% or higher0.7%$110K traded
- 7.0% or higher2.8%$38.5K traded
- 10.0% or higher2.1%$54K traded
Each level settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.
- What counts. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the official U-3 rate) the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports for any month of 2026, at or above the listed level.
- The finish. A level cannot settle No until the December 2026 jobs report is out, or 31 January 2027 if it is late.
A jump in unemployment is what usually turns the Fed from hiking to cutting.
The Fed's job is stable prices and maximum employment, so a rising jobless rate is the signal most likely to bring cuts, which crypto traders watch for.
A sharp rise also means less spare money in households, so the effect on Bitcoin has cut both ways.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on how high US unemployment goes in 2026.
What chance does Polymarket give US unemployment reaching 5.0% in 2026?
1.7%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on how high US unemployment goes in 2026 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 March 2027. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the official U-3 rate) the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports for any month of 2026, at or above the listed level.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on how high US unemployment goes in 2026 has the most money on it?
5.5% or higher is the busiest, with $218K traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on how high US unemployment goes in 2026 mean for Bitcoin?
The Fed's job is stable prices and maximum employment, so a rising jobless rate is the signal most likely to bring cuts, which crypto traders watch for.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.