Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give US inflation going above 4.5% in 2026 an 11% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Chance now
- 11%
- Above 4.5%
- Traded
- $1.5M
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Jan
- 2027, scheduled close
Since 13 May 2026 the chance of US inflation going above 4.5% in 2026 has fallen from 60% to 11%.
Chance over time
- Above 4.5%
- Above 5%
- Above 6%
Polymarket lists 5 open levels on how high US inflation gets in 2026, and 3 have already settled.
- Above 4.5%11%$270K traded
- Above 5%4.5%$348K traded
- Above 6%1.7%$75.5K traded
- Above 8%2.2%$42.7K traded
- Above 10%1.7%$61.3K traded
Settled results (3)
- Above 3%Yes$280K traded
- Above 3.5%Yes$177K traded
- Above 4%Yes$292K traded
Each level settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.
- What counts. The yearly rise in the Consumer Price Index for any month of 2026, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports it, above the listed level.
- The finish. A level settles Yes the moment a report tops it, and cannot settle No until the December 2026 report is out.
- Revisions. Changes to earlier months made after the December 2026 report do not count.
Inflation matters to Bitcoin twice, as the story it is sold on and as the reason the Fed hikes.
Bitcoin's fixed supply is often pitched as protection from rising prices, yet in 2022, when US inflation hit its highest in four decades, Bitcoin fell sharply as the Fed raised rates.
So higher inflation has mattered less for its own sake than for what it makes the Fed do next.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on how high US inflation gets in 2026.
What chance does Polymarket give US inflation going above 4.5% in 2026?
11%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on how high US inflation gets in 2026 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 January 2027. The yearly rise in the Consumer Price Index for any month of 2026, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports it, above the listed level.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on how high US inflation gets in 2026 has the most money on it?
Above 5% is the busiest, with $348K traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on how high US inflation gets in 2026 mean for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin's fixed supply is often pitched as protection from rising prices, yet in 2022, when US inflation hit its highest in four decades, Bitcoin fell sharply as the Fed raised rates.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.