Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give the US government holding Bitcoin in its reserves before the end of 2026 a 3.5% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 11 Nov 2026, 12:18 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 11 Nov 2026, 12:18 PM ET
- Chance now
- 3.5%
- US Bitcoin reserve
- Traded
- $65.9K
- US dollars, on this market
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 6 Nov 2025 the chance of the US government holding Bitcoin in its reserves before the end of 2026 has fallen from 56% to 3.5%.
Chance over time
- Chance of Yes
Polymarket trades one Yes-or-No market on the US government holding Bitcoin in a national reserve, so its two prices add up to about 100%.
- Yes3.5%$65.9K traded
- No97%
Polymarket settles this market by the rules below, which say exactly what counts as Yes.
- What counts. The US government holding any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026.
- What does not. Bitcoin the government has confiscated does not count as holding it in reserve.
- The source. Official information from the US government and the Federal Reserve, or a consensus of credible reporting.
A national Bitcoin reserve would make Bitcoin an asset that governments hold.
Crypto supporters have long argued that governments should keep Bitcoin the way they keep gold, and a reserve would be the clearest sign of that.
A government as a buyer could add steady demand, but the odds here show how far traders think that is from happening.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 5.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 11 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 67% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 30% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on the US government holding Bitcoin in a national reserve.
What chance does Polymarket give the US government holding Bitcoin in its reserves before the end of 2026?
3.5%, read on 11 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on the US government holding Bitcoin in a national reserve settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. The US government holding any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on the US government holding Bitcoin in a national reserve mean for Bitcoin?
Crypto supporters have long argued that governments should keep Bitcoin the way they keep gold, and a reserve would be the clearest sign of that.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, from the Fed to crypto companies, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.