Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give the Clarity Act being passed by Congress and signed into law by the end of 2026 a 2.1% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 11 Nov 2026, 12:18 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 11 Nov 2026, 12:18 PM ET
- Chance now
- 2.1%
- Clarity Act 2026
- Traded
- $25.2M
- US dollars, on this market
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 12 Jan 2026 the chance of the Clarity Act being passed by Congress and signed into law by the end of 2026 has fallen from 72% to 2.1%.
Chance over time
- Chance of Yes
Polymarket trades one Yes-or-No market on the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026, so its two prices add up to about 100%.
- Yes2.1%$25.2M traded
- No98%
Polymarket settles this market by the rules below, which say exactly what counts as Yes.
- What counts. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R. 3633) passing both chambers of the US Congress and being signed into law by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026.
- What does not. Passing one chamber, or signing after the deadline, leaves the market at No.
- The source. Congress.gov's legislation tracker and other official US government information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
A US law that sets the rules for crypto markets would matter to Bitcoin's biggest buyers.
The Clarity Act is a US bill that would set which regulator oversees which digital assets, a question exchanges, funds and banks have waited on for years.
Clearer rules can make large institutions more willing to hold crypto, though a law's effect on prices is never certain and the market often reacts to the news well before any signing.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 5.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 11 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 67% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 30% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026.
What chance does Polymarket give the Clarity Act being passed by Congress and signed into law by the end of 2026?
2.1%, read on 11 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R. 3633) passing both chambers of the US Congress and being signed into law by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 mean for Bitcoin?
The Clarity Act is a US bill that would set which regulator oversees which digital assets, a question exchanges, funds and banks have waited on for years.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, from the Fed to crypto companies, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.