Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give China letting its citizens buy Bitcoin with yuan by the end of 2026 a 1.5% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Chance now
- 1.5%
- China Bitcoin ban
- Traded
- $1.1M
- US dollars, on this market
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 6 Nov 2025 the chance of China letting its citizens buy Bitcoin with yuan by the end of 2026 has fallen from 14% to 1.5%.
Chance over time
- Chance of Yes
Polymarket trades one Yes-or-No market on China lifting its Bitcoin ban before 2027, so its two prices add up to about 100%.
- Yes1.5%$1.1M traded
- No99%
Polymarket settles this market by the rules below, which say exactly what counts as Yes.
- What counts. The government of the People's Republic of China announcing that its citizens may legally buy Bitcoin with yuan from inside China, by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026.
- An announcement is enough. The change only has to be announced, not yet in force, for the market to settle Yes.
- The source. Official statements from China's government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Lifting the ban would reopen one of the world's largest pools of savers to Bitcoin.
China closed its crypto exchanges in 2017 and in 2021 declared every crypto transaction illegal and pushed out its miners.
Any sign of a reversal tends to make headlines in crypto, so this market is a quick read on how seriously traders take them.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on China lifting its Bitcoin ban before 2027.
What chance does Polymarket give China letting its citizens buy Bitcoin with yuan by the end of 2026?
1.5%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on China lifting its Bitcoin ban before 2027 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. The government of the People's Republic of China announcing that its citizens may legally buy Bitcoin with yuan from inside China, by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on China lifting its Bitcoin ban before 2027 mean for Bitcoin?
China closed its crypto exchanges in 2017 and in 2021 declared every crypto transaction illegal and pushed out its miners.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.