Skip to content
Intro offer Your first month of Pro is $1
Sign up free

Polymarket odds today

Traders on Polymarket see no cuts at all as the most likely number of Fed rate cuts in 2026, at 98%.

Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.

Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET

Likeliest
98%
No cuts
Traded
$55.7M
US dollars, across every outcome
Closes
31 Dec
2026, scheduled close

Since 30 Sep 2025 the chance of no cuts at all in Polymarket's market on the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 has risen from 15% to 98%.

Chance over time

0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2025Dec 2025Mar 2026Jun 2026Sep 202698%0.7%0.5%
  • No cuts
  • 2 cuts (50 bps)
  • 1 cut (25 bps)
Each line is the Yes price of one Polymarket market, about one reading a day from 30 Sep 2025 to 9 Nov 2026.
Make My PredictionCheck Leaderboard

Polymarket lists 13 possible outcomes for the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026, and exactly one will settle Yes.

  1. No cuts98%$9.5M traded
  2. 1 cut (25 bps)0.5%$3.7M traded
  3. 2 cuts (50 bps)0.7%$3.6M traded
  4. 3 cuts (75 bps)0.1%$3M traded
  5. 4 cuts (100 bps)0.1%$2.8M traded
  6. 5 cuts (125 bps)<0.1%$3.1M traded
  7. 6 cuts (150 bps)<0.1%$4.3M traded
  8. 7 cuts (175 bps)<0.1%$3.5M traded
  9. 8 cuts (200 bps)<0.1%$3.3M traded
  10. 9 cuts (225 bps)<0.1%$4.3M traded
  11. 10 cuts (250 bps)<0.1%$5M traded
  12. 11 cuts (275 bps)<0.1%$5.3M traded
  13. 12 or more cuts (300+ bps)0.1%$4.2M traded
Chances are read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026. See this market on Polymarket.

Exactly one outcome settles Yes, and the rules below say how Polymarket picks it.

  • What counts. Every 25 basis point cut to the top of the Fed's target range in 2026 counts once, so a 50 point cut counts as two and a cut of 1 to 24 points counts as one.
  • Emergency cuts. Cuts made outside the scheduled meetings count too, which is why the market stays open until 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026.
  • Early results. A count settles No as soon as more cuts than it allows have happened.
  • The source. The Federal Reserve's own record of its rate decisions, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Bitcoin traders watch the count of Fed cuts because cheaper money has often lifted risky assets.

A cut lowers what it costs to borrow dollars, and in past easing cycles money has tended to flow toward riskier assets, crypto among them. The link is loose, and cuts made in a panic have come with falling prices.

Fewer cuts than expected means dearer money for longer, which crypto has usually taken badly. Where traders put Bitcoin itself is on the Bitcoin odds page below.

Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.

In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.

BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)

Up 68%Down 32%

BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)

As of

On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.

BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.

These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026.

What is the most likely number of Fed rate cuts in 2026, according to Polymarket?

No cuts at all, at 98%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.

When does the Polymarket market on the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 settle?

It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. Every 25 basis point cut to the top of the Fed's target range in 2026 counts once, so a 50 point cut counts as two and a cut of 1 to 24 points counts as one.

Which outcome of the Polymarket market on the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 has the most money on it?

No cuts is the busiest, with $9.5M traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.

What does Polymarket's market on the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 mean for Bitcoin?

A cut lowers what it costs to borrow dollars, and in past easing cycles money has tended to flow toward riskier assets, crypto among them. The link is loose, and cuts made in a panic have come with falling prices.

Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?

Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.

These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.

See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.

Fed Decision December 2026: Polymarket OddsWhat Polymarket traders expect the Fed to do at its 8 to 9 December 2026 meeting.Fed Decision January 2027: Polymarket OddsWhat Polymarket traders expect the Fed to do at its first meeting of 2027.When Will the Fed Cut Rates? Polymarket OddsThe chance the Fed cuts by each meeting through July 2027, and the deadlines that passed without a cut.Fed Funds Rate Prediction 2026: Polymarket OddsEvery level of the Fed's target range Polymarket trades for the rest of 2026, up and down.Fed Rate Hike in 2026? Polymarket OddsThe chance the Fed raises rates again by the end of its December 2026 meeting.Fed Emergency Rate Cut Odds 2026: PolymarketThe chance the Fed cuts at an unscheduled meeting before the end of 2026.