Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give a Fed rate cut by the December 2026 meeting a 1.1% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Chance now
- 1.1%
- By the December 2026 meeting
- Traded
- $3.9M
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 28 Jan
- 2028, scheduled close
Since 26 Feb 2026 the chance of a Fed rate cut by the December 2026 meeting has fallen from 84% to 1.1%.
Chance over time
- By the December 2026 meeting
- By the January 2027 meeting
- By the March 2027 meeting
Polymarket lists 6 open deadlines on when the Fed next cuts rates, and 7 have already settled.
- By the December 2026 meeting1.1%$465K traded
- By the January 2027 meeting6.6%$9.4K traded
- By the March 2027 meeting13%$6.2K traded
- By the April 2027 meeting48%$156 traded
- By the June 2027 meeting32%$27 traded
- By the July 2027 meeting48%$162 traded
Settled results (7)
- By the January 2026 meetingNo$588K traded
- By the March 2026 meetingNo$0 traded
- By the April 2026 meetingNo$543K traded
- By the June 2026 meetingNo$785K traded
- By the July 2026 meetingNo$579K traded
- By the September 2026 meetingNo$645K traded
- By the October 2026 meetingNo$256K traded
Each deadline settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.
- What counts. Any cut to the top of the Fed's target range by the end of the named meeting, emergency cuts included.
- The deadlines. Each meeting is its own market, and a meeting that passed without a cut settled No and stays in the table with that result.
- The source. The Federal Reserve's own record of its rate decisions, or a consensus of credible reporting.
The date of the next cut matters to Bitcoin holders as much as the cut itself.
Markets tend to move when the expected date of the first cut shifts, because that shift changes the whole path of borrowing costs at once.
Each deadline below is a separate bet, so the jump from one meeting to the next shows when traders think the turn comes.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on when the Fed next cuts rates.
What chance does Polymarket give a Fed rate cut by the December 2026 meeting?
1.1%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on when the Fed next cuts rates settle?
It is scheduled to close on 28 January 2028. Any cut to the top of the Fed's target range by the end of the named meeting, emergency cuts included.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on when the Fed next cuts rates has the most money on it?
By the December 2026 meeting is the busiest, with $465K traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on when the Fed next cuts rates mean for Bitcoin?
Markets tend to move when the expected date of the first cut shifts, because that shift changes the whole path of borrowing costs at once.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.