Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket see a 25 bps hike as the most likely Fed decision at the December 2026 meeting, at 81%.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Likeliest
- 81%
- 25 bps hike
- Traded
- $17.4M
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 9 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 30 Jul 2026 the chance of a 25 bps hike in Polymarket's market on the Fed's December 2026 decision has risen from 42% to 81%.
Chance over time
- 25 bps hike
- No change
- 25 bps cut
Polymarket lists 5 possible outcomes for the Fed's December 2026 decision, and exactly one will settle Yes.
- Cut of 50 bps or more0.5%$3.1M traded
- 25 bps cut0.7%$3M traded
- No change20%$4.1M traded
- 25 bps hike81%$5.1M traded
- Hike of 50 bps or more0.5%$2.1M traded
Exactly one outcome settles Yes, and the rules below say how Polymarket picks it.
- What it measures. The change to the top of the Fed's target range at the meeting scheduled for 8 to 9 December 2026, against where it stood before the meeting.
- Odd sizes. A change that is not a multiple of 25 basis points is rounded up to the next 25, so a 12.5 point cut counts as a 25 bps cut.
- The source. The Federal Open Market Committee's statement after the meeting.
The December decision matters for Bitcoin because it sets what dollars cost going into 2027.
A hike makes holding cash and bonds pay more, which raises the bar for an asset that pays nothing, like Bitcoin. A hold or a cut lowers that bar.
Crypto prices often move most when a decision surprises, not when it lands as priced, so the gap between these odds and the result is the number to watch.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on the Fed's December 2026 decision.
What is the most likely Fed decision at the December 2026 meeting, according to Polymarket?
A 25 bps hike, at 81%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on the Fed's December 2026 decision settle?
It is scheduled to close on 9 December 2026. The change to the top of the Fed's target range at the meeting scheduled for 8 to 9 December 2026, against where it stood before the meeting.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on the Fed's December 2026 decision has the most money on it?
25 bps hike is the busiest, with $5.1M traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on the Fed's December 2026 decision mean for Bitcoin?
A hike makes holding cash and bonds pay more, which raises the bar for an asset that pays nothing, like Bitcoin. A hold or a cut lowers that bar.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.