Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give another Fed rate hike by the end of the December 2026 meeting an 80% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Chance now
- 80%
- Fed rate hike 2026
- Traded
- $1.7M
- US dollars, on this market
- Closes
- 9 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 17 Sep 2026 the chance of another Fed rate hike by the end of the December 2026 meeting has fallen from 81% to 80%.
Chance over time
- Chance of Yes
Polymarket trades one Yes-or-No market on another Fed rate hike in 2026, so its two prices add up to about 100%.
- Yes80%$1.7M traded
- No21%
Polymarket settles this market by the rules below, which say exactly what counts as Yes.
- What counts. Any rise in the top of the Fed's target range from 17 September 2026 to the end of the meeting scheduled for 8 to 9 December 2026, emergency hikes included.
- What does not. The decision announced at the 15 to 16 September 2026 meeting.
- The finish. The market cannot settle No until the Fed announces its December decision.
Another hike would tell crypto traders the Fed is not done raising rates.
Through the 2022 hiking cycle Bitcoin fell with stocks as the Fed raised rates at the fastest pace in decades.
A hike that traders already expect tends to move prices less than one that surprises, so watch where this chance sits on the day.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on another Fed rate hike in 2026.
What chance does Polymarket give another Fed rate hike by the end of the December 2026 meeting?
80%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on another Fed rate hike in 2026 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 9 December 2026. Any rise in the top of the Fed's target range from 17 September 2026 to the end of the meeting scheduled for 8 to 9 December 2026, emergency hikes included.
What does Polymarket's market on another Fed rate hike in 2026 mean for Bitcoin?
Through the 2022 hiking cycle Bitcoin fell with stocks as the Fed raised rates at the fastest pace in decades.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.