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Polymarket odds today

Traders on Polymarket give the top of the Fed's range reaching 4.25% or higher before 2027 a 76% chance.

Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.

Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET

Chance now
76%
Top of range at 4.25% or higher
Traded
$1.9M
US dollars, across every outcome
Closes
31 Dec
2026, scheduled close

Since 19 Nov 2025 the chance of the top of the Fed's range reaching 4.25% or higher before 2027 has risen from 34% to 76%.

Chance over time

0%25%50%75%100%Nov 2025Feb 2026May 2026Aug 202676%1.7%1.5%
  • Top of range at 4.25% or higher
  • Top of range at 4.5% or higher
  • Bottom of range at 3.25% or lower
Each line is the Yes price of one Polymarket market, about one reading a day from 19 Nov 2025 to 9 Nov 2026.
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Polymarket lists 20 open levels on the Fed funds rate before 2027, and 1 has already settled.

Levels it can rise to

  1. Top of range at 4.25% or higher76%$156K traded
  2. Top of range at 4.5% or higher1.7%$52.6K traded
  3. Top of range at 4.75% or higher1.8%$82.3K traded
  4. Top of range at 5.0% or higher1.9%$21.2K traded
  5. Top of range at 5.25% or higher2.1%$143K traded
  6. Top of range at 5.5% or higher2.1%$58.8K traded

Levels it can fall to

  1. Bottom of range at 3.25% or lower1.5%$83.5K traded
  2. Bottom of range at 3.0% or lower1.8%$325K traded
  3. Bottom of range at 2.75% or lower1.6%$380K traded
  4. Bottom of range at 2.5% or lower1.5%$234K traded
  5. Bottom of range at 2.25% or lower1.9%$45.6K traded
  6. Bottom of range at 2.0% or lower1.9%$23.7K traded
  7. Bottom of range at 1.75% or lower1.4%$13.3K traded
  8. Bottom of range at 1.5% or lower2.1%$28.5K traded
  9. Bottom of range at 1.25% or lower1.8%$6K traded
  10. Bottom of range at 1.0% or lower1.5%$2.5K traded
  11. Bottom of range at 0.75% or lower1.7%$762 traded
  12. Bottom of range at 0.5% or lower1.8%$111K traded
  13. Bottom of range at 0.25% or lower1.8%$133K traded
  14. Bottom of range at 0% or lower1.8%$21.4K traded
Settled results (1)
  1. Bottom of range at 3.5% or lowerYes$9K traded
Chances are read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026. See this market on Polymarket.

Each level settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.

  • What counts. A rise counts when the top of the Fed's target range reaches the level, a fall when the bottom of the range does.
  • The window. Any decision up to 12:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026 counts, emergency moves included, and a level settles as soon as it is reached.
  • The source. The Federal Reserve's own record of its rate decisions, or a consensus of credible reporting.

The Fed's rate is the price of dollars, and Bitcoin is priced in dollars.

When the Fed's range climbs, cash and short bonds pay more with no risk, and money has tended to leave assets that pay nothing, crypto included.

A range heading back down has usually been the friendlier backdrop for Bitcoin, though it has never been a guarantee.

Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.

In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.

BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)

Up 68%Down 32%

BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)

As of

On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.

BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.

These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on the Fed funds rate before 2027.

What chance does Polymarket give the top of the Fed's range reaching 4.25% or higher before 2027?

76%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.

When does the Polymarket market on the Fed funds rate before 2027 settle?

It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. A rise counts when the top of the Fed's target range reaches the level, a fall when the bottom of the range does.

Which outcome of the Polymarket market on the Fed funds rate before 2027 has the most money on it?

Bottom of range at 2.75% or lower is the busiest, with $380K traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.

What does Polymarket's market on the Fed funds rate before 2027 mean for Bitcoin?

When the Fed's range climbs, cash and short bonds pay more with no risk, and money has tended to leave assets that pay nothing, crypto included.

Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?

Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.

These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.

See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.

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