Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give a Kraken IPO by 31 December 2026 a 4.5% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Chance now
- 4.5%
- By 31 December 2026
- Traded
- $1.6M
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2027, scheduled close
Since 20 Nov 2025 the chance of a Kraken IPO by 31 December 2026 has fallen from 73% to 4.5%.
Chance over time
- By 31 December 2026
- By 30 June 2027
- By 31 December 2027
Polymarket lists 4 open deadlines on when Kraken goes public, and 2 have already settled.
- By 31 December 20264.5%$577K traded
- By 31 March 202716%$4K traded
- By 30 June 202737%$3.7K traded
- By 31 December 202771%$3.3K traded
Settled results (2)
- By 31 December 2025No$495K traded
- By 31 March 2026No$546K traded
Each deadline settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.
- What counts. Kraken, the US crypto exchange, completing an initial public offering (its first sale of shares to the public on a recognised stock exchange) by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline.
- What does not. A merger, a sale of the company or its closing settles every open deadline No.
- The source. Kraken's own announcements, or a consensus of credible reporting.
A crypto exchange listing on a stock market is a bet on crypto trading volumes for years ahead.
Exchanges earn most of their money from trading fees, so they tend to list when prices and volumes are high and wait when they are not.
That makes the timing these odds show a read on how traders see the crypto market itself.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on when Kraken goes public.
What chance does Polymarket give a Kraken IPO by 31 December 2026?
4.5%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on when Kraken goes public settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2027. Kraken, the US crypto exchange, completing an initial public offering (its first sale of shares to the public on a recognised stock exchange) by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on when Kraken goes public has the most money on it?
By 31 December 2026 is the busiest, with $577K traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on when Kraken goes public mean for Bitcoin?
Exchanges earn most of their money from trading fees, so they tend to list when prices and volumes are high and wait when they are not.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.