Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give Satoshi's identity being proven by 31 December 2026 a 1.8% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 11 Nov 2026, 12:28 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 11 Nov 2026, 12:28 PM ET
- Chance now
- 1.8%
- By 31 December 2026
- Traded
- $2M
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 17 Apr 2026 the chance of Satoshi's identity being proven by 31 December 2026 has fallen from 5.5% to 1.8%.
Chance over time
- By 31 December 2026
Polymarket lists 1 open deadline on Satoshi Nakamoto's identity being proven, and 3 have already settled.
- By 31 December 20261.8%$941K traded
Settled results (3)
- By 30 April 2026No$14.8K traded
- By 30 June 2026No$1M traded
- By 31 July 2026No$5K traded
Each deadline settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.
- What counts. Definitive proof of who Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is, found between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on the deadline.
- What proves it. Definitive evidence, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. A credible consensus of reporting is also used.
- The earlier deadlines. A deadline that passed without proof settled No and stays in the table with that result.
Proof of who built Bitcoin would settle the biggest open question in crypto's history.
Nobody has ever proven who Satoshi Nakamoto is, and the early coins linked to the name have long sat untouched.
Traders put a small chance on proof surfacing in any one year, and a surprise would be a big Bitcoin story whatever it did to the price.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 5.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 11 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 67% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 30% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on Satoshi Nakamoto's identity being proven.
What chance does Polymarket give Satoshi's identity being proven by 31 December 2026?
1.8%, read on 11 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on Satoshi Nakamoto's identity being proven settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. Definitive proof of who Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is, found between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on the deadline.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on Satoshi Nakamoto's identity being proven has the most money on it?
By 31 December 2026 is the busiest, with $941K traded in total, as read on 11 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on Satoshi Nakamoto's identity being proven mean for Bitcoin?
Nobody has ever proven who Satoshi Nakamoto is, and the early coins linked to the name have long sat untouched.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, from the Fed to crypto companies, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.