Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give a wallet labelled as Satoshi Nakamoto's moving any Bitcoin in 2026 a 2.1% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 11 Nov 2026, 12:28 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 11 Nov 2026, 12:28 PM ET
- Chance now
- 2.1%
- Satoshi moves Bitcoin
- Traded
- $5.7M
- US dollars, on this market
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 10 Jan 2026 the chance of a wallet labelled as Satoshi Nakamoto's moving any Bitcoin in 2026 has fallen from 5.5% to 2.1%.
Chance over time
- Chance of Yes
Polymarket trades one Yes-or-No market on Satoshi's wallets moving Bitcoin in 2026, so its two prices add up to about 100%.
- Yes2.1%$5.7M traded
- No98%
Polymarket settles this market by the rules below, which say exactly what counts as Yes.
- What counts. A wallet labelled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on a public blockchain explorer showing an outflow or a swap at any time from 9 January 2026 to 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026.
- The source. That explorer's page for Satoshi Nakamoto. If it goes permanently offline, a consensus of credible sources decides.
A move from Satoshi's wallets would be one of the biggest Bitcoin stories in years.
Satoshi Nakamoto is the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, and coins in wallets linked to Satoshi have long sat still, so any movement would make headlines.
A move would show only that someone controls the keys, not that anything is being sold, but traders would watch the price closely either way.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 5.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 11 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 67% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 30% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on Satoshi's wallets moving Bitcoin in 2026.
What chance does Polymarket give a wallet labelled as Satoshi Nakamoto's moving any Bitcoin in 2026?
2.1%, read on 11 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on Satoshi's wallets moving Bitcoin in 2026 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. A wallet labelled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on a public blockchain explorer showing an outflow or a swap at any time from 9 January 2026 to 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on Satoshi's wallets moving Bitcoin in 2026 mean for Bitcoin?
Satoshi Nakamoto is the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, and coins in wallets linked to Satoshi have long sat still, so any movement would make headlines.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, from the Fed to crypto companies, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.