Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give OpenSea's token valued above $1B one day after launch a 3.6% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 11 Nov 2026, 12:28 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 11 Nov 2026, 12:28 PM ET
- Chance now
- 3.6%
- Above $1B
- Traded
- $7M
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 1 Oct 2025 the chance of OpenSea's token valued above $1B one day after launch has fallen from 89% to 3.6%.
Chance over time
- Above $1B
- Above $500M
- Above $3B
Polymarket lists 7 open levels on OpenSea's token value on its first day.
- Above $100M5.5%$324K traded
- Above $300M5%$95.5K traded
- Above $500M4.8%$2.3M traded
- Above $1B3.6%$2.2M traded
- Above $2B2.5%$564K traded
- Above $3B1.5%$840K traded
- Above $5B1.6%$503K traded
Each level settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.
- What counts. The fully diluted value of OpenSea's token (its total supply multiplied by its price) being above the level in the market at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after trading starts.
- If there is no token. If OpenSea has not launched a token by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026, every level settles No, so these chances include the chance of no launch at all.
- The price. The most liquid price source available.
The first-day value of a big crypto token shows how much money traders are ready to put behind it.
A fully diluted value counts every token that will ever exist at today's price, which is why it is the number crypto traders quote on launch day.
Because a token that never launches settles every level No, the chances here are as much a read on the launch itself as on the price, and both tend to follow the mood of the wider crypto market.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 5.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 11 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 67% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 30% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on OpenSea's token value on its first day.
What chance does Polymarket give OpenSea's token valued above $1B one day after launch?
3.6%, read on 11 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on OpenSea's token value on its first day settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. The fully diluted value of OpenSea's token (its total supply multiplied by its price) being above the level in the market at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after trading starts.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on OpenSea's token value on its first day has the most money on it?
Above $500M is the busiest, with $2.3M traded in total, as read on 11 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on OpenSea's token value on its first day mean for Bitcoin?
A fully diluted value counts every token that will ever exist at today's price, which is why it is the number crypto traders quote on launch day.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, from the Fed to crypto companies, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.