Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give MicroStrategy being removed from an MSCI index by 31 December 2026 an 83% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 11 Nov 2026, 12:41 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 11 Nov 2026, 12:41 PM ET
- Chance now
- 83%
- By 31 December 2026
- Traded
- $1.2M
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 3 Feb 2026 the chance of MicroStrategy being removed from an MSCI index by 31 December 2026 has risen from 54% to 83%.
Chance over time
- By 31 December 2026
Polymarket lists 1 open deadline on MicroStrategy being removed from an MSCI index, and 2 have already settled.
- By 31 December 202683%$46.7K traded
Settled results (2)
- By 31 March 2026No$1M traded
- By 30 June 2026No$173K traded
Each deadline settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.
- What counts. MicroStrategy being removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index, or moved to another MSCI index, at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline.
- What proves it. An official MSCI announcement of the removal or the move is enough for Yes.
- The earlier deadlines. A deadline that passed without a removal settled No and stays in the table with that result.
Index membership matters for MicroStrategy because it is a stock that follows Bitcoin closely.
MicroStrategy, now called Strategy, holds a large amount of Bitcoin and keeps buying it, so its share price tends to move with the crypto market.
Funds that track an index must sell what leaves it, which can push a stock down, so a removal could weigh on a company many Bitcoin investors watch.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 5.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 11 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 69% of the 89 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (89 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on MicroStrategy being removed from an MSCI index.
What chance does Polymarket give MicroStrategy being removed from an MSCI index by 31 December 2026?
83%, read on 11 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on MicroStrategy being removed from an MSCI index settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. MicroStrategy being removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index, or moved to another MSCI index, at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on MicroStrategy being removed from an MSCI index has the most money on it?
By 31 December 2026 is the busiest, with $46.7K traded in total, as read on 11 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on MicroStrategy being removed from an MSCI index mean for Bitcoin?
MicroStrategy, now called Strategy, holds a large amount of Bitcoin and keeps buying it, so its share price tends to move with the crypto market.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, from the Fed to crypto companies, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.