Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give one of five major crypto exchanges being announced insolvent or filing for bankruptcy in 2026 a 2.4% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 11 Nov 2026, 12:28 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 11 Nov 2026, 12:28 PM ET
- Chance now
- 2.4%
- Exchange insolvency 2026
- Traded
- $146K
- US dollars, on this market
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 6 Feb 2026 the chance of one of five major crypto exchanges being announced insolvent or filing for bankruptcy in 2026 has fallen from 13% to 2.4%.
Chance over time
- Chance of Yes
Polymarket trades one Yes-or-No market on a major crypto exchange becoming insolvent in 2026, so its two prices add up to about 100%.
- Yes2.4%$146K traded
- No98%
Polymarket settles this market by the rules below, which say exactly what counts as Yes.
- What counts. Any of five major centralized crypto exchanges, named in the market's rules, or its official representatives, or credible reporting, announcing by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026 that the exchange is insolvent or has filed for any kind of bankruptcy.
- What does not. An exchange that is not one of the five does not count.
The failure of a big exchange is the kind of shock that has hit Bitcoin's price hard before.
When an exchange collapses, its customers can lose access to their coins and others sell to get out, which has driven past crypto sell-offs.
The market prices it as a rare event, and reading it beside Bitcoin's price odds shows how much risk traders see in the biggest exchanges.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 5.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 11 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 67% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 30% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on a major crypto exchange becoming insolvent in 2026.
What chance does Polymarket give one of five major crypto exchanges being announced insolvent or filing for bankruptcy in 2026?
2.4%, read on 11 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on a major crypto exchange becoming insolvent in 2026 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. Any of five major centralized crypto exchanges, named in the market's rules, or its official representatives, or credible reporting, announcing by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026 that the exchange is insolvent or has filed for any kind of bankruptcy.
What does Polymarket's market on a major crypto exchange becoming insolvent in 2026 mean for Bitcoin?
When an exchange collapses, its customers can lose access to their coins and others sell to get out, which has driven past crypto sell-offs.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, from the Fed to crypto companies, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.