Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give a Base token launch by December 31, 2026 a 2.1% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 11 Nov 2026, 12:28 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 11 Nov 2026, 12:28 PM ET
- Chance now
- 2.1%
- By December 31, 2026
- Traded
- $8.1M
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2027, scheduled close
Since 19 Nov 2025 the chance of a Base token launch by December 31, 2026 has fallen from 60% to 2.1%.
Chance over time
- By December 31, 2026
- By June 30, 2027
- By December 31, 2027
Polymarket lists 3 open deadlines on a Base token launch, and 3 have already settled.
- By December 31, 20262.1%$795K traded
- By June 30, 202717%$31.1K traded
- By December 31, 202737%$54.1K traded
Settled results (3)
- By December 31, 2025No$4.9M traded
- By June 30, 2026No$1.8M traded
- By September 30, 2026No$553K traded
Each deadline settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.
- What counts. Base officially launching its own token, with the token actively and publicly tradable, by 11:59 PM ET on the date.
- What does not. Stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens and synthetic tokens do not count, and neither does an announcement alone.
- The source. Information from Base, or a consensus of credible reporting.
A token from Base would be a big moment for the Ethereum side of the crypto market.
Base is a layer-2 network, a faster and cheaper network built on top of Ethereum, and it is one of the busiest places for new crypto apps.
A token would give traders a new way to bet on that activity, and the date they expect it is a small read on how they see the market's next stretch.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 5.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 11 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 67% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 30% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on a Base token launch.
What chance does Polymarket give a Base token launch by December 31, 2026?
2.1%, read on 11 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on a Base token launch settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2027. Base officially launching its own token, with the token actively and publicly tradable, by 11:59 PM ET on the date.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on a Base token launch has the most money on it?
By December 31, 2026 is the busiest, with $795K traded in total, as read on 11 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on a Base token launch mean for Bitcoin?
Base is a layer-2 network, a faster and cheaper network built on top of Ethereum, and it is one of the busiest places for new crypto apps.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, from the Fed to crypto companies, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.