Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give a marketwide circuit breaker halting the NYSE before 2027 a 6.8% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Chance now
- 6.8%
- Stock market crash 2026
- Traded
- $154K
- US dollars, on this market
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 8 Nov 2025 the chance of a marketwide circuit breaker halting the NYSE before 2027 has fallen from 27% to 6.8%.
Chance over time
- Chance of Yes
Polymarket trades one Yes-or-No market on a stock market crash big enough to halt trading before 2027, so its two prices add up to about 100%.
- Yes6.8%$154K traded
- No93%
Polymarket settles this market by the rules below, which say exactly what counts as Yes.
- What counts. A Level 1, 2 or 3 marketwide trading halt on the New York Stock Exchange, which its rules call when the S&P 500 falls 7%, 13% or 20% from the day before, between 7 November 2025 and 31 December 2026.
- The source. The exchange's own notices, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Bitcoin trades all weekend and all night, so it often takes the first hit when stocks crash.
In March 2020, the last time the circuit breaker tripped, Bitcoin lost about half its price in two days before stocks found a bottom.
When selling is forced, crypto is often sold too, because it is the one market still open.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on a stock market crash big enough to halt trading before 2027.
What chance does Polymarket give a marketwide circuit breaker halting the NYSE before 2027?
6.8%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on a stock market crash big enough to halt trading before 2027 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. A Level 1, 2 or 3 marketwide trading halt on the New York Stock Exchange, which its rules call when the S&P 500 falls 7%, 13% or 20% from the day before, between 7 November 2025 and 31 December 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on a stock market crash big enough to halt trading before 2027 mean for Bitcoin?
In March 2020, the last time the circuit breaker tripped, Bitcoin lost about half its price in two days before stocks found a bottom.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.