Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket give gold reaching $5,000 by the end of 2026 a 5.7% chance.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Chance now
- 5.7%
- $5,000 or higher
- Traded
- $2.7M
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 31 Jul 2026 the chance of gold reaching $5,000 by the end of 2026 has fallen from 64% to 5.7%.
Chance over time
- $5,000 or higher
- Dip to $3,500
Polymarket lists 11 open levels on the price of gold by the end of 2026.
Prices it can reach
- $4,500 or higher50%$0 traded
- $5,000 or higher5.7%$378K traded
- $6,000 or higher2.2%$1.5M traded
- $7,000 or higher1.6%$233K traded
- $8,000 or higher1.4%$81.9K traded
- $10,000 or higher1.4%$108K traded
- $12,000 or higher1.1%$71.7K traded
- $15,000 or higher0.7%$120K traded
Prices it can dip to
- Dip to $3,5007.5%$101K traded
- Dip to $3,0002.5%$27.4K traded
- Dip to $2,5000.8%$3K traded
Each level settles Yes or No on its own, by the rules below.
- The price. The official daily settlement price of the front-month gold futures contract.
- What counts. A high target settles Yes when a settlement price is at or above it on any trading day, a dip target when one is at or below it, through the last trading day of December 2026.
Gold is the asset Bitcoin is most often compared with, as a store of value outside any government's control.
Some years both rise on the same fears about money and debt; in others gold climbs while Bitcoin falls, because crypto still trades more like a growth bet.
The Bitcoin vs gold vs S&P 500 page below shows which of the three traders expect to finish 2026 ahead.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on the price of gold by the end of 2026.
What chance does Polymarket give gold reaching $5,000 by the end of 2026?
5.7%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on the price of gold by the end of 2026 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. The official daily settlement price of the front-month gold futures contract.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on the price of gold by the end of 2026 has the most money on it?
$6,000 or higher is the busiest, with $1.5M traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on the price of gold by the end of 2026 mean for Bitcoin?
Some years both rise on the same fears about money and debt; in others gold climbs while Bitcoin falls, because crypto still trades more like a growth bet.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.