Polymarket odds today
Traders on Polymarket see the S&P 500 as the most likely winner of Bitcoin vs gold vs the S&P 500 in 2026, at 88%.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Polymarket market turned into a percentage. We read it from Polymarket's public market data on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026, 12:56 PM ET
- Likeliest
- 88%
- S&P 500
- Traded
- $1000K
- US dollars, across every outcome
- Closes
- 31 Dec
- 2026, scheduled close
Since 23 Dec 2025 the chance of the S&P 500 in Polymarket's market on Bitcoin vs gold vs the S&P 500 in 2026 has risen from 23% to 88%.
Chance over time
- S&P 500
- Gold
- Bitcoin
Polymarket lists 3 possible outcomes for Bitcoin vs gold vs the S&P 500 in 2026, and exactly one will settle Yes.
- Bitcoin4.5%$465K traded
- Gold5.8%$314K traded
- S&P 50088%$221K traded
Exactly one outcome settles Yes, and the rules below say how Polymarket picks it.
- What counts. Each asset's price change over 2026, from its price at the start of the year to its price at the end, with no dividends or interest added.
- The prices. Bitcoin from a large exchange's BTC/USDT one-minute chart at midnight ET on 1 January and 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026; gold from the front gold futures contract's close and the S&P 500 from the index's official close, on the last trading days of 2025 and 2026.
- A tie. If two finish level, the one whose name comes first alphabetically wins.
This market prices Bitcoin directly against the two assets it is most often measured by.
Bitcoin was the best of the three in several recent years and the worst in others, which is the swing these odds put a number on.
With the year nearly over, the chance mostly reflects how far apart the three already are, so a late rally would need to be large.
Bitcoin on PolymarketTraders on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 6.5% chance of reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026.Read on 9 Nov 2026. See every Bitcoin price target and its chart.In the last 30 days, 68% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 50% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks a simpler question than this market, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
These are the questions people ask about Polymarket's odds on Bitcoin vs gold vs the S&P 500 in 2026.
What is the most likely winner of Bitcoin vs gold vs the S&P 500 in 2026, according to Polymarket?
The S&P 500, at 88%, read on 9 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes share, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Polymarket market on Bitcoin vs gold vs the S&P 500 in 2026 settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. Each asset's price change over 2026, from its price at the start of the year to its price at the end, with no dividends or interest added.
Which outcome of the Polymarket market on Bitcoin vs gold vs the S&P 500 in 2026 has the most money on it?
Bitcoin is the busiest, with $465K traded in total, as read on 9 Nov 2026.
What does Polymarket's market on Bitcoin vs gold vs the S&P 500 in 2026 mean for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin was the best of the three in several recent years and the worst in others, which is the swing these odds put a number on.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other economy markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket, each tied back to Bitcoin.
See every live crypto market on Polymarket odds today, or compare the two big venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.