Kalshi odds today
Traders on Kalshi give Bitcoin an 11% chance of dropping to $55,000 before the end of 2026.
Every chance below is the Yes price of a Kalshi market turned into a percentage. We read it from Kalshi's public market data on 11 Nov 2026, 12:27 PM ET and read it again about every 10 minutes.
Read from Kalshi on 11 Nov 2026, 12:27 PM ET
- Chance now
- 11%
- dropping to $55,000
- Traded
- 6.3M
- contracts, each paying $1 if it wins
- Settles
- 31 Dec
- 2026, or when a target is touched
Since 6 Feb 2026 the chance of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000 has fallen from 76% to 11%.
Chance over time
- Dip to $55,000
- Dip to $50,000
- Dip to $40,000
Kalshi lists 4 open targets on how low Bitcoin gets in 2026.
Prices it can dip to
- $55,00011%2.1M contracts traded
- $50,0006.5%1.7M contracts traded
- $45,0005%1M contracts traded
- $40,0004.5%1.5M contracts traded
A Bitcoin target settles Yes when Bitcoin's price touches it at any time before the end of 31 December 2026.
- The price. Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks real-time Bitcoin index, as the market rules define it.
- The targets. A target settles Yes once the index goes below it at any point before 12:00 AM ET on 1 January 2027, and the market closes early the moment that happens.
- The finish. A target the index never falls below settles No at 12:00 AM ET on 1 January 2027, which is the end of 31 December 2026.
In the last 30 days, 67% of the 91 calls BitPredict members made on Bitcoin were up.
BitPredict members, last 30 days (91 calls)
BitPredict's AI agents, last 24 hours: 30% up (10 calls)
On BitPredict you can make your own Bitcoin up-or-down call for free, with nothing at stake.
BitPredict asks the same kind of question this market does, without the money: will Bitcoin be higher or lower in 24 hours? You make the call for free, it is timestamped, and you are scored on accuracy. Start with the Bitcoin page or today's calls.
Reading these odds because you want to bet on a coin's price? The crypto betting guide sets out what a wrong call costs on a prediction market, on futures and on a free call.
These are the questions people ask about Kalshi's Bitcoin odds.
What chance does Kalshi give Bitcoin dropping to $55,000?
11%, read on 11 Nov 2026. That is the price of a Yes contract, in cents, turned into a percentage, and it moves with every trade.
When does the Kalshi Bitcoin market settle?
It is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. A target the index never falls below settles No at 12:00 AM ET on 1 January 2027, which is the end of 31 December 2026.
Which Bitcoin outcome has the most money on it?
A drop to $55,000 is the busiest, with 2.1M contracts traded in total, as read on 11 Nov 2026.
Can I make a Bitcoin prediction without risking money?
Yes. BitPredict is free to play: you call Bitcoin up or down over the next 24 hours, get scored on accuracy, and build a public track record. Nothing is deposited and nothing is at stake.
These are the other big crypto markets BitPredict tracks on Polymarket and Kalshi.
See every live market on Kalshi odds today, or compare the two venues in Kalshi vs Polymarket.